You Call This Volatility Stocks Rise as Nasdaq Breaks Losing Streak Stocks to Watch

Post on: 16 Март, 2015 No Comment

You Call This Volatility Stocks Rise as Nasdaq Breaks Losing Streak Stocks to Watch

By Ben Levisohn

Stocks finally rebounded today, as Nike  (NKE ), Google  (GOOG ), Amazon.com (AMZN ) and Alpha Natural Resources  (ANR ) gained.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 16,256.27, while the  S&P 500  gained  0.4% to 1,851.96. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 4,112.99, ending its big losing streak.

The Dow got a lift from Nike, which rose 3% to $72.92 after getting upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel. but that gain was equalized by Goldman Sachs  (GS ), which dropped 1.3% to $156.56. Alpha Natural Resources rose 7.3% to $.88 on optimism that the worst is over for coal stocks . Amazon.com rose 2.9% to $327.07 and Google advanced 3.1% to $554.90 as investors scooped up beaten-down momentum stocks and helped lift the Nasdaq, which had sustained its largest three-day drop since 2011 .

Citigroup Private Banks Steven Wieting shrugs off the Nasdaqs recent struggles:

Investors may forget that global shares suffered an intra-year correction of 24% within 2011 (-19% for U.S. shares)  within the current, historic bull market recovery.  Listening to recent press coverage of a “growth tech” collapse – as several U.S. tech issues have quickly sold off more than 20% might leave listeners to think the entire U.S. equity universe has fallen similarly.  Instead, broad U.S. shares have fallen about 2% from Wednesday’s record high as we write.  We must wonder how shrill the coverage will sound if and when equities post a statistically average 12% inter-year drop.

You Call This Volatility Stocks Rise as Nasdaq Breaks Losing Streak Stocks to Watch

In essence, we fear that five quarters of exceptionally low market volatility roughly half the long-term average – has left investors with a clouded perspective of how risk assets perform.

Deutsche Banks Alan Ruskin  credits U.S. payrolls for the muted volatility (the recent swings in the Nasdaq notwithstanding):

Another less obvious factor relevant for all asset classes, is that the single most important monthly data point, the monthly change in payrolls number from the establishment survey, has shown a dispersion  — as measured by the 1 year rolling standard deviation of the change and percentage change that has been hovering around its lowest level in at least 50 years!  For all the distortions, payroll changes month to month in  this upswing have been surprisingly steady.  Just look at the 6m average at 188K, the 12mth average at 187K, the 36 month average monthly change at 187K and last month’s 192K  no wonder all of bond vol, FX vol, and even equity vol feel constrained, while carry is supported! I’m a believer that payrolls will show some acceleration in the months ahead and add new uncertainty about its trend, but the many FX and rates ‘capitulation trades’ seen after the March payrolls is a clear sign that the market is taking a view that ‘seeing is believing’.

Lets hope it stays that way.

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