Where will activist investors strike next
Post on: 28 Апрель, 2015 No Comment
Financial Post takes a weekly look at the tools and strategies that will help make your investment decisions. This week: Banking on activist investments in a volatile market.
Could 2015 be the year of the activist investor?
A new study, released Wednesday by law firm Schulte Roth & Zabel and data firm Mergermarket, predicts activist investing will see a sharp uptick in the next 12 months. It found that 98% of the senior corporate executives and hedge funds surveyed expect activism will rise, with more than half predicting a “substantial” increase.
“The current backdrop is one of continued growth of activism and the burgeoning power of stockholders,” said Marc Weingarten, a partner at Schulte Roth & Zabel.
But pinpointing potential companies is no easy task for investors hoping to cash in.
The Schulte Roth & Zabel survey suggests that certain sectors will see higher levels of activism than others in the next 12 months, with 86% of respondents pointing to the financial services sector as a likely target, while 62% cited industrials and chemicals.
But the study also noted that a large chunk of those surveyed view excess balance sheets as one of the biggest potential triggers for activist interest, as was the case earlier this year when Apple Inc.’s large money pile attracted interest from Carl Ichan.
“The focus of corporate respondents on excess cash on balance sheets may be symptomatic of the effectiveness of shareholder activism over the last several years — executives have clearly been sensitized that carrying a significant amount of cash is inviting an activist to show up,” said David Rosewater, a partner at Schulte Roth & Zabel.
There has been no shortage of companies attracting interest by activist investors in the past year. Just last week, fertilizer company Agrium Inc. was targeted by ValueAct Capital Management LP, which revealed in a filing that it had acquired 5.7% of the company. The move comes just 18 months after Agrium’s long and bitter proxy battle with Jana Partners LLC.
For the most part, shareholders have benefited from activist intervention in the near term, with the stocks of target companies spiking in the days following the revelation that an activist is interested. Agrium shares jumped by 7.6% after last weeks news, and are now up 10.3% in the last five trading days.
Nelson Peltz, the activist investor of Trian Fund Management LP, said he sees a lot of the rise in activist investing as having to do with market efficiency.
With high-speed trading and algorithms dominating volumes today, there are fewer opportunities to profit from price discrepancies. As a result, many hedge funds are trying to increase returns through activism, rather than waiting for them.
But investors hoping to profit from activist investments might have to contend with a smaller slice of the pie, given the growing popularity of the strategy.
Four in five respondents in the study said they expect activist investments to return between 10% and 20%, while 20% are targeting higher returns of 20% to 30%. That compares with an earlier survey in which 52% expected 10% to 20% returns while 48% expected 20% to 30%.