UPDATE 9 stocks that could be gushers
Post on: 24 Июнь, 2015 No Comment

By Philip van Doorn, MarketWatch
Low debt, steady earnings to weather the stormy energy sector
It’s become a cliche for investors to call themselves contrarians, because everybody wants to buy stocks when they’re down, in order to make a killing on the rebound. The questions are, of course, when, and which ones?
Mark Hulbert’s discussion of four oil stocks to buy now challenged investors who brag about not following the herd, to show that you really mean it.
Oil for January delivery (CLF5) on the New York Mercantile Exchange slipped below $55 a barrel in trading early Wednesday. With OPEC refusing to cut its output, it will take plenty of time for production cuts and curtailment of expansion plans by U.S. producers to have an effect. Nobody knows when oil will hit bottom, but maybe you don’t have to time things perfectly to make money after the bloodletting ends.
Saudi Arabia has the most important voice among OPEC nations, since the kingdom not only has the largest supply but can most easily adjust its production levels. The Saudis’ message has been quite clear, saying that the threat to its market share from U.S. shale oil producers is unacceptable. The damage has already been done. The S&P 500 Oil and Gas Drilling subsector is down 35% since November 1.
Another dramatic result of the of the oil-price drop and OPEC’s policy has been for Russia’s currency to crash, causing the country’s central bank to raise its key interest rate to 17% on Tuesday. That wasn’t enough to stop the pounding, with the ruble in free fall. At one point on Tuesday, one U.S. dollar in Europe bought about 80 rubles (USDRUB). The currency had strengthened by early Wednesday, with the dollar buying about 68 rubles.
Oil prices will bottom eventually. Hulbert’s list focused on quality companies with attractive dividend yields that have significant ownership among institutional investors, high ratings, a strong earnings track record.
Meanwhile, we have put together a larger list of oil producers and refiners that have shown consistent profits and are not highly leveraged. This is important, because creditors faced with a revenue downturn and cut to expansion by energy borrowers are likely to make their terms much more strict.
Staring with a list of 469 North American companies in the Energy Minerals sector provided by FactSet, we narrowed the group to nine companies with ratios of long-term debt to equity of less than 20% as of their most recent quarterly filings, that have also reported positive earnings per share for at least eight straight quarters.
Here they are, ranked by how much they have pulled back since Nov. 1.
U.S. oil producers and refiners with low leverage, consistent earnings:
There is some overlap with Hulbert’s list, with Chevron and Exxon in both groups, and even though dividends are not a driver for this second list, there are many stocks here with attractive yields.
Your next step if you want to play the oil sector right now is to do some research on your own. If you are considering a particular company, it is important to understand its strategy, especially in light of recent events. How diversified is its business? In this case, more is better.
-Philip van Doorn; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
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