By Jennifer Booton, MarketWatch

Estimize’s crowdsourced earnings estimates may move stocks

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—A few companies in the tech and restaurant space this week may have surprise post-earnings stock moves.

Estimates from a wide range of professional analysts, including those on the buy side, as well as academia and individual investors, show a slightly different picture than the consensus of the Wall Street sell side of how companies will perform in their earnings reports this week.

The estimates were compiled by Estimize, a platform that uses crowdsourcing in an effort to develop a more accurate set of forecasts. In the past, stocks have moved after a company drastically missed or beat Estimize estimates, even if actual results matched Wall Street expectations.

For example, Twitter’s shares fell 13% after the company missed Estimize estimates in the third quarter and offered a weak outlook on monthly active users. The site reported adjusted earnings per share of a penny, which was in line with Wall Street expectations but below the three cents being forecasted on the Estimize platform.

Watch these four this week:

Twitter Inc(TWTR): This week, the microblogging site is expected to report earnings per share of six cents on revenue of $455 million. Estimize also has a six-cent estimate on Twitter but is expecting slightly higher revenues of $456.3 million. Twitter is scheduled to report earnings after the market close on Thursday. Its shares closed up 6.2% on Tuesday, partly on a report in The Wall Street Journal that it will start selling promoted tweet slots to advertisers to be placed on news reading app Flipboard and Yahoo Japan, and were up 2% in recent trade on Wednesday, though they are still down roughly 39% over the last 12 months.

( .)

NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI): The company that co-developed the near field communication technology used by Apple Pay is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.32 on revenue of $1.5 billion, according to the Wall Street consensus. Estimize has NXP beating on the bottom line at $1.36 a share, but shows revenue in line with Wall Street.

While NXP has been around for more than a decade without mustering much mainstream adoption, Estimize said Apple Pay may finally be the catalyst that gets the ball rolling for NXP by mainstreaming mobile payments. Shares of NXP, expected to report fourth-quarter earnings after the market close on Wednesday, closed up 2.4% on Tuesday and are down 0.5% on Wednesday. They are up 71% over the last 12 months.

( .)

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.(BWLD): The chicken wings restaurant chain is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.08 on revenue of $405.40 million after the market close on Thursday, according to the Wall Street consensus. Estimize expects earnings to come in higher at around $1.14, though it is just about in line with Wall Street on revenue. Estimize believes sales grew as much as 19% over the last year, in what is typically Buffalo Wind Wings’ most profitable quarter.

However, keep an eye on the price of chicken wings, which might have affected profitability. Last quarter, management said the average price of wings increased 32% quarter-over-quarter. The company warned at the time that high prices could persist through the beginning of this year. Shares of the restaurant chain were down 1.2% in recent trade. They have risen close to 32% over the last year.

( .)

Outerwall Inc.(OUTR). Wall Street has the maker of Redbox movie-rental kiosks and Coinstar coin counters reporting fourth-quarter earnings of $2.33 a share on revenue of $601.3 million after market close on Thursday. However, Estimize has Outerwall reporting earnings and revenue sharply under that, and the company’s shares seem to be reflecting that.

Outerwall’s stock closed about 2% lower on Tuesday, though it is up marginally on Wednesday. The shares are slightly down on the year compared with a 17% rally for the benchmark S&P 500. Estimize is forecasting adjusted EPS of $2.05 on revenue of $591.74 billion. Estimates have come down since the abrupt resignation two weeks ago of CEO Scott Di Valerio. The company has been suffering from weak annual revenue growth, a tough DVD rental market and a canceled streaming partnership with Verizon.

-Jennifer Booton; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

( .)

online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-04-15 0942ET