Stock Market Gurus Top Country ETF Bets For 2013 EWW EWJ EPOL DGS
Post on: 16 Март, 2015 No Comment
Where should ETF investors travel in 2013 for the biggest returns? Several investment strategists share their top country ETF investing ideas.
• Mark DiOrio, portfolio manager at Parasol Investment Management in Westmont, Ill. with $125 million in assets under management: iShares Poland ETF (ARCA:EPOL ).
Poland is poised to be a standout equity market for 2013. A combination of an accommodative business environment, easing monetary policy and attractive valuation levels sets the stage for an emerging opportunity.
For 2013 (from the left), Parasol’s Mark DiOrio prefers Poland, Zacks’ Neena Mishra favors Mexico, Camarda’s Don Vandenbord likes Japan and Beckerman. View Enlarged Image
Supported by the Ministry of the Treasury, a plan for 2012-13 has been implemented to privatize 300 Polish companies.
One of the objectives is to execute the plan through stock exchange transactions in order to strengthen the domestic capital market. The other objective is to strengthen economic competitiveness.
To further strengthen the private sector, Poland has embarked on a three-step deregulation agenda. The first two steps significantly reduced administrative burdens. The third step, to be implemented in 2013, focuses on VAT (value-added tax) relief for companies.
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) maintains Poland’s own currency, the zloty. That means Poland sets its own monetary policy, giving it flexibility to manage many challenges.
Currency fluctuations can be a risk to U.S. investors. The z loty is about 21% cheaper vs. the dollar than it was on Jan. 1, 2008.
The slowdown and recession in most of Europe is an ongoing risk. Those factors reduced Polish third-quarter gross domestic product growth to 1.4% from 2.3% in Q2. However, the NBP is responding to this slowdown in GDP growth. It has begun to lower interest rates to 4.25% from 4.5%. The NBP said it would lower rates more if the slowdown persists. Low rates are historically bullish for equities.
The Polish stocks in EPOL trade near 1.7 times book value compared to 3.0 P-B ratio for the broad MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Poland is not only trading at a discount to the rest of its peers, it is trading at a discount to itself.
The Polish equity market’s cyclically adjusted price-to-years, using 10-year earnings, is 11.2. Its current one-year P-E is near 7.8. The P adjusts much quicker than the E, and in this case the P has plenty of room and reason to expand.
• Neena Mishra, ETF research director at Zacks Investment Research in Chicago, Ill.: iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index Fund (ARCA:EWW ).
Many U.S. manufacturers are shifting production to Mexico from China as China’s average manufacturing wages, adjusted for productivity, now top Mexico’s.