using math and previous data to predict stock prices? Technical analysis?

How does everyone feel about the abilities of math and previous data to predict short term future economic data (stock prices). I know theories in this have been tested and to know avail but still any thoughts here?

Answer by Tim

Historical data is only good as a guide. Using mathematical formula to attempt to predict short term future economic data may not be that feasible. In order for it to work, you must know what the data relates to, to which particular time frame, other economic factors that may impact on the data. As you can see there are a lot of questions that arises. It will be best to devise a formula, then back-test it to see how well it works for a situation. To technical analysts, they will always look at trends and what the indicators are trying to tell them. They do take into account historical data to arrive at their present day analysis.

using math to predict the population in the year 2050?

The rate of world population growth has varied over the centuries, which makes it difficult to get a good fit to all the data using an exponential function. But if you look at only some of the data, for a recent period, you might be able to get better results.

Year Estimated population

1950 2,510,000,000

1970 3,680,000,000

1.Using the table above, what would you estimate the population to be in the year 2050

2. General expression for predicting the world population in some arbitrary future year, based on this data set

3. What population does your answer to Question 2 predict for the population in the year 2050? How does this compare with your estimate in Question 1.

Answer by peachmonk

Make a scatter plot for the given dates. Make an estimate as to the population in 2050 based on the other data (answer to question 1). Then estimate an exponential function to fit the data. Next find where the function estimates the population in 2050, how was this different from your original estimate (answer to question 3). Write down the equation for your exponential function (answer to question 2). Hope this helps.

Why Using Mathematics To Predict The Future Is Futile, And Why We Should Do It Anyway. Dr. Tony Fisher, Acting Principal and former Mathematics Department Chair at Hunter College High School. His mathematics research at the University of Chicago focused on finite group theory. He has taught everything from Algebra I to Calculus, as well as elective courses in statistics and alternative geometries. Most recently, he led students in weekly seminars on unsolved problems in number theory, plane geometry and modern algebra. In thespirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)