Up 500 points one day, down 500 the next. Thats the way the market is these days. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 520 points, erasing all of Tuesdays gains from the Federal Reserves decision to keep short-term interest rates near zero. As of noon Thursday, it was up about 250. By Wednesdays close, the Dow had lost 2,000 points, or more than 15% of its value since July 21. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes lost slightly more during that time. All three are perilously close to the 20% decline from the late April-early May top that many pundits use as a rule of thumb to determine a bear market.

Unfortunately, I think stocks have still lower to go. Lets start with the fundamentals. First, the economy. Need I say more? Jobless figures were somewhat better in June, but economists have revised downward their estimates of GDP growth. Measures of consumer confidence are pretty weak. And did anybody get the real message the Federal Open Market Committee put out Tuesday? The economy is so sick, the Fed is willing to guarantee exceptionally low rates for two years. Ive never seen the Fed telegraph its moves so far in advance, and the FOMCs statement said over and over again how lousy the economy is. Meanwhile, the open rebellion by three voting FOMC members makes it highly unlikely were going to see another round of quantitative easing anywhere near as big as the last two.

Then theres the debt crisis. Everyone agrees the European Union just doesnt have the money to bail out Italy and Spain, its third- and fourth-largest economies, if it comes to that. Rumors are swirling about the health of French banks and the safety of Frances AAA rating. And the debt-ceiling standoff here, which culminated in S&P downgrading the USs AAA credit rating, means more government action to fix the economy is likely off the table.

So theres no way President Obama will get much additional stimulus. Hes desperately trying to extend unemployment benefits and the payroll tax holiday for another year, but that looks pretty iffy at best.

Finally, there are earnings, which have been great. But were getting much later in the cycle and their momentum appears to be slowing. Its hard for me to see how earnings growth alone is going to power the market much higher when everything else appears to be going in the opposite direction. And while valuations are looking attractive by some measures, they dont exist in a vacuum, either.

Where does that leave us? Four prominent technical analysts I contacted all agreed: Stocks are heading lower, likely into a new bear market. David Sneddon, head of technical analysis research at Credit Suisse in London, said the 1,370.58 intraday high in the S&P we saw on May 2 was the likely top. Theres critical technical support around 1,100, which is just about from where the market bounced back this week. So far, we seem to be holding that. The next level of technical support below that is at 1,020-1,022. Youd have to get below [1,000-1,010] to have a genuine bear market.

Another London-based technician, Sandy Jadeja of City Index, who watches the Dow, thinks thats where were going. A few weeks ago, he predicted the Dow would drop to 10,428, which it did. Now, he told me by e-mail, the rally that follows will be brief, and then lead to another leg down to 9,673 and further.

Lows are not to be expected until 2012, he concluded. Next month is critical. If we break the low of August in September, there is worse to come.

Mark Arbeter, chief technical analyst of Standard & Poors, said back in May and June that the bull market was probably over, as I reported in this column. He hasnt changed his position. By e-mail, he said he would look for some stabilization and a potential short-term rally now that the S&P 500 has fallen into a major zone of chart support between 1,023 and 1,128. Ultimately he thinks the S&P could fall to 1,020, or maybe as low as 935. That would be 15% below Wednesdays close, and would definitely mark a new bear market.

Michael Kahn, who writes the Getting Technical column for Barrons.com and the QuickTakes Pro blog, has long argued were in a secular (long-term) bear market, and he thinks the cyclical bull is over, too. Like Arbeter, he sees 1,010 to 1,050 as the next level of support for the S&P, and below that 930. I think it stops at 930 to make the 2000s-2010s follow the 1970s very closely, he wrote me by e-mail. Thats one decade for which investors have little nostalgia.

The technicians are unanimous that stocks are going lower, though some are looking for a strong rally that goes against the bearish trend. Arbeter doesnt expect that rally to go much beyond 1,250-1,260 before it sells off again. Sneddon doesnt think itll bounce much higher than 1,200. Weve clearly seen a lot of technical damage done in a lot of markets, he told me. I would be personally [inclined] rather to lighten up and reduce my positions on rallies.

That would be my position, too, if I hadnt already taken profits and sold what I wanted to a couple of months ago.

If you missed that chance, I wouldnt sell in panic now, but would wait for stocks to mount a rebound to sell off positions in riskier small-cap stocks (which already may be in a bear market) and emerging markets, whose time in the sun has come and gone. That also may be a good time to permanently reduce your exposure to equities.

But I certainly wouldnt buy into a market like this with all its wicked swings and uncertainties. Even mighty Goldman Sachs (GS ) lost money on 15 trading days in the second quarter, and John Paulson, the hedge-fund genius who masterminded the greatest trade ever by shorting subprime mortgages, has lost 31% so far this year in his largest fund.

If people like that who have the best information and technology are losing money in this market, do you really think youre going to beat them at their own game?

There will be a time to buy again, but its not now. This market is heading lower.