MarkHulbert

Bloomberg

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — OK, all you independent thinkers: Now’s the time to not just talk the talk in your investing, but actually walk the walk.

You say that you don’t simply follow the herd — that you are willing to buy when the blood is running in the streets.

Well, now’s the perfect opportunity to show that you really mean it — by buying oil stocks for your portfolio.

You object? You insist that contrarian principles don’t apply to an industry as out of favor as oil?

You’re wrong, according to Kelley Wright, whose Investment Quality Trends advisory service is one of the best performing of any the Hulbert Financial Digest has monitored over the last three decades. In an interview earlier this week, Wright argued that oil stocks represent some of the most attractive investment opportunities in the current market.

“Just close your eyes, grit your teeth and jump,” he added.

But aren’t oil companies in such bad shape that they may soon have to cut their dividends? No doubt, in some cases. That is why Wright recommends that you focus only on those companies in such sound financial shape that a dividend cut is unlikely.

The methodology he employs to focus only on these bluest of blue-chip oil companies is to eliminate from consideration any that doesn’t jump over at least five of the following six hurdles:

• Has increased its dividend at least five times over the last dozen years
• Has an S&P Quality Ranking in the “A” category
• Has at least 5 million shares outstanding
• Has at least 80 institutional investors
• Has paid dividends for at least 25 straight years
• Has produced higher earnings per share in at least seven of the last 12 years

That’s demanding enough, but there’s more. Wright recommends that, among this select group, you favor those whose dividend yields are at or close to the high ends of their historical ranges. If these stocks’ yields eventually fall back to within the middle parts of their ranges, their prices will appreciate markedly. And, in the meantime, they pay very handsome dividends.

Market Swings Mark Return to Reality

In fact, the four oil companies that Wright finds most compelling right now have an average yield of 3.93%.

Those yields are awfully attractive when the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.42%  yields just 2.11%.

What if oil US:CLF5  declines even further from its current price in the mid $50s? Even in that event, Wright thinks it is unlikely that any of these four companies will cut their dividends. He notes that, for none of the four is there an alarmingly high dividend payout ratio — dividends as a percentage of earnings.

It’s also worth noting in this regard that all four companies continued to pay out their dividends in 2008 and early 2009, even as oil prices plunged to the high $30s.

Furthermore, Wright is confident that oils prices won’t remain low forever. After all, he points out, it’s not the case that oil “production has permanently eclipsed long-term demand. What we are witnessing is a short-term reduction in global demand because of economic weakness in the major economies outside the U.S.”

So, while no one can tell how long it will take for oil prices to recover, “it won’t be forever.”

Therefore, if Wright is right, these four oil companies’ stocks low current prices represent a rare opportunity to cheaply bet on that near certainty.