What should investors expect as the stock market enters the final stretch of the year? We asked asset managers to share their outlook and single best ETF idea for the final four months of 2013.

• Michael Gayed, chief investment strategist of Pension Partners in New York with $260 million in assets under management: SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD ).

Gold will likely continue its outperformance alongside other precious metals in the fourth quarter for two reasons. First, gold tends to perform well in negative real-rate environments, whereby inflation is higher than nominal interest rates.

Michael Gayed, Bill Krivicich, Mark Eshman, Rich Winer and Matthew Forester like ETFs ranging from gold to technology and floating-rate notes in an. View Enlarged Image

Given the behavior of housing stocks and weaker recent housing data, it may become increasingly clear the economy cannot absorb spiking interest rates, which have put us in a positive real-rate environment. That means the Federal Reserve will have to keep stimulus longer than expected, which is gold-friendly, to calm fears over near-term economic head winds resulting from spiking interest rates.

The second major catalyst is India’s rupee, which has collapsed since May. Recent actions by the Reserve Bank of India to reverse the decline may help spur demand further in that country because an appreciating currency would make rupee-denominated gold prices cheaper to import. This would increase overall demand for the yellow metal as the RBI fights to save the rupee on behalf of one of the world’s largest gold consumers.

• Bill Krivicich, chief investment officer at Gary Goldberg Financial Services in Suffern, N.Y. with $670 million in assets: SPDR International Consumer Discretionary (ARCA:IPD ).

In Q4, global growth will likely surprise on the upside, and with it high-end consumer spending will rise.

U.S. discretionary consumer spending continues to exceed forecasts. And I expect high-end purchases to pick up around the globe and in Europe as it comes out of recession. The holdings in IPD offer an attractive yield of about 1.75%, a strong earnings growth rate of 18.35% over the past five years and a relatively low price-earnings ratio of 13.5, covering all three of our investment screens.

Top holdings include Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF ), Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM ), and the ultra-high-end retailer LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (OTCPK:LVMUY ). As the world’s larger economies continue to recover and high-end consumers open their wallets just a little bit more than they did last year, consumer discretionary companies are likely to benefit.

The dollar rally is likely to take a pause for several months. Anxiety over rising interest rates and the potential for inflation will likely keep the greenback in a tight trading range, reducing head winds for domestic and international exporters, further boosting earnings of international companies.