MichaelKitchen

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Asian investors will get a couple of key updates in the coming week on how Japan’s recovery from the devastating March 11 earthquake is going, with Tokyo set to release some important economic data.

Japanese gross domestic product numbers for the April-June quarter are due out Monday, and while almost all economists expect the data to show a contraction, they vary widely on how bad the hit will be.

A key consideration will be whether the economy shrank more than the revised 3.5% drop in January-March period.

A Dow Jones Newswires survey yielded forecasts ranging from a 1.4% contraction to a heavy 4.7% plunge, with the median projection for a fall of 2.7%.

Still, no matter the grim picture for the previous quarter, Japan’s Kyodo news agency quotes officials as saying the economy should swing back to growth in the current July-September quarter, given the pick-up seen in recent industrial-production data.

On Thursday, another piece of the Japanese recovery puzzle is due, in the form of July trade data.

In June, Japan swung to a surprise trade surplus of almost $900 million after posting deficits in April and May, and economists and investors alike will watch to see whether the trade-focused economy can repeat this.

Still, June exports were below their year-earlier levels and imports were up sharply, as production disruptions from the earthquake and a strong yen pushed on the trade balance.

So while last week’s wild swings on the global stock markets may continue to be the biggest factor for Tokyo stocks, upside surprises for the GDP and trade data could go a long way toward pushing the Nikkei Average back up.

Other highlights for the coming week include minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last policy meeting.

The RBA had been on an extended pause — since last November, in fact — from its tightening cycle, but many analysts are now suggesting the central bank will switch to cutting rates, given the rising economic uncertainty around the globe. These same analysts will no doubt scour the minutes, due out Tuesday, for clues to the RBA’s next move.

And on Thursday, the market will be watching for earnings from two key Chinese blue chips: wireless provider China Mobile Ltd. (941)  CHL, -0.31%  and computer maker Lenovo Group Ltd. (992)  LNVGF, -3.61%

Meanwhile, Indian markets will be closed Monday for Independence Day, while South Korea will be on break that same day, in honor of National Liberation Day.