Alibaba ShortTerm Pain For LongTerm Gain Wall Street Lowers Estimates Asia Stocks to Watch

Post on: 16 Март, 2015 No Comment

Alibaba ShortTerm Pain For LongTerm Gain Wall Street Lowers Estimates Asia Stocks to Watch

By Shuli Ren

Chinas largest e-commerce Alibaba Group (BABA ) closed 8.8% lower on Thursday, after reporting lower-than-expected revenue growth in the fourth quarter. The revenue miss was due to lower monetization rate how Alibaba converts merchandize transactions on its e-commerce sites into revenue dollars.

I have with me this morning four analyst reports that lowered their price targets for Alibaba. The tone is similar they cut their price targets because of the monetization rate, but the long-term outlook for Alibaba is still solid. Interestingly, they cut their earnings estimates but left the multiples unchanged, i.e. they have not de-rated Alibaba.

Here is Piyush Mubayi at Goldman Sachs :

Below-consensus revenues reflect: (a) Higher proportion of mobile transactions. reaching 42% of GMV, vs 36% in 2Q. Mobile monetization rate remained at discount to PC (1.96% versus 3.23%). (b) PC pay-for-performance monetization rate fell as mgmt revamped search algorithm to distribute traffic to long-tail keywords and organic results.

Both developments have enhanced merchants’ ROI, in our view, suggesting the ecosystem’s long-term healthy expansion. but impact on revenues could linger .

We cut FY15E-17E EPS 1-9% on lower monetization and sustained investments on new businesses, and thus lower our 12m TP 6% to $98. and remain Neutral.

Morgan Stanley s Angela Moh and team cut their price target from $118 to $110.80:

The share price dropped after net revenue and monetization rate missed expectations, even though GMV and earnings beat. We think the

underlying reasons for the lower monetization are healthier than meet the eye. We reiterate OW.

Alibaba ShortTerm Pain For LongTerm Gain Wall Street Lowers Estimates Asia Stocks to Watch

For the second consecutive quarter, Alibaba has beaten GMV expectation but missed monetization rate. We think this reflects a healthy virtual economy with solid underlying demand and stable / lower costs for merchants. Ongoing improvement in personalization initiatives and increased ad budget allocation to mobile by merchants should improve net revenue growth over time.

Deutsche Bank s Alan Hellawell III and team reduced their price target from $112.10 to $105.10:

The co is focusing on: 1) optimizing its ranking algorithm, which improves the accuracy of natural results, 2) the promotion of long-tail inventory/keywords. Both measures we believe could temporarily lower Ali’s CPCs/take-rate. but benefit the co long term with improved merchant ROI and increased ads bidding. We thus have revised down FY15/16/17E blended take rate by 17/28/24bps to 2.42%/2.49%/2.65%, respectively, while upping GMV growth assumptions to 48%/34%/22% YoY vs. a prior 44% /31% /21%.

And Cantor Fitzgerald s Youssef Squali and team lowered their Buy price target to $100:

While we expect Alibaba to continue to dominate the rapidly growing Chinese ecommerce market for years to come, we believe that near-term predictability of growth and margins has deteriorated given the companys continued transition to mobile and changes to its user experience. This is amplified by recent tensions with SAIC, which may have a negative short-term impact as well. We continue to like the stock longer-term, however, given BABAs position and opportunity in and outside of China, and strong balance sheet.

Chinas other large e-commerce were affected as well. JD.com (JD ) closed 5% lower and Vipshop (VIPS ) retreated 4.3%.

Categories
Stocks  
Tags
Here your chance to leave a comment!