3 Housing stocks to shelter bulls and bears The Tell

Post on: 7 Июль, 2015 No Comment

3 Housing stocks to shelter bulls and bears The Tell

Some investors disappointed by mixed results this earnings season have turned to  to the housing sector where strong data on starts and sales are offering encouragement.

However, others are concerned that the rising number of housing starts and the continuing difficulty for many would-be buyers in getting a mortgage will wind up creating  a surplus of houses. Read more about the discussion over just what lies ahead for the housing sector

The folks over at Seeking Alpha pondered this situation Friday and came up with a clever answer, find stocks that would perform well under either macro housing scenario.

First, they put the question in the context of different industry views on housing:

Citigroup  /quotes/zigman/5065548 /quotes/nls/c C CFO John Gerspach warned recently that the recovery in housing could face a rocky road ahead and that the sector still faces, significant challenges ahead . This perspective contradicted comments made by J.P. Morgan CEO  Chase /quotes/zigman/272085 /quotes/nls/jpm JPM Jamie Dimon earlier in the week that housing had, turned the corner , and that the economy could benefit from the sectors rebound in coming quarters…

Citigroup, on the other hand, has had trouble moving $95 billion of U.S. mortgages off its books through securitization. Shares of the bank have done well lately, jumping 10.5% since third quarter earnings beat expectations earlier this month. The company reported earnings, excluding one-time items, of $1.06 per share on revenue of $19.4 billion. The street had been expecting a gain of just $0.96 per share, 22% lower than in the same quarter last year. Mortgage originations fell 15% while increasing by 29% at J.P. Morgan and surging 56% at Wells Fargo /quotes/zigman/239557 /quotes/nls/wfc WFC

They conclude,

While market pundits have put these two views at loggerheads, they may actually both be right.

If that’s the case, the SeekingAlpha authors offer this trio of shares they expect to perform well in either scenario.

PulteGroup  /quotes/zigman/129784 /quotes/nls/phm PHM reports earnings on October 25th with expectations for a gain of $0.20 versus a loss of $0.34 in the same quarter last year. The $6 billion homebuilder easily beat expectations in the second quarter with a gain of $0.11 versus expectations of a $0.05 gain in net income per share… If the company meets expectations for the third quarter, trailing price-to-earnings will still be 21.7 times. Earnings still need to rebound more than 50% to get the shares back to their long-run average valuation of 10 times trailing earnings before the bursting of the housing bubble.

Zillow  /quotes/zigman/5930210 /quotes/nls/z Z is a leading real estate listing site with almost 7% of the market, even higher than the National Association of Realtors official site and second only to Yahoo (YHOO ). Even better, the company has an advertising agreement with Yahoo that collects revenue on visits to both sites. A tiered subscription service allows agents to attract and connect with potential clients, and a Mortgage Marketplace application allows lenders to advertise directly to buyers.

Shares of Home Depot  /quotes/zigman/229488 /quotes/nls/hd HD have benefited with the rebound and are up 70% over the last twelve months. Even at a trailing price-to-earnings of 21.3 times, the company may be a good investment on a continued rebound in housing. Revenue should be supported as the average age of existing homes increases, needing more repairs, and as construction picks up for new homes. Earnings are not reported until November 13th but are expected to increase 17% to $0.70 from $0.60 per share in the same period last year.

- Greg Morcroft

Follow The Tell blog on Twitter @thetellblog

Follow Greg Morcroft on Twitter @gmorcroft


Categories
Stocks  
Tags
Here your chance to leave a comment!