Chronology of Coverage

Mar. 13, 2015

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column asserts that dollar’s surging value against euro is bad for United States economy, since strong dollar makes American industry less competitive globally; holds that strong dollar-weak euro dynamic demonstrates that US is tied to Europe’s economic misfortune; urges Federal Reserve to take implications of strong dollar fully into account when crafting economic policy. MORE

Mar. 10, 2015

Federal Reserve survey finds consumer expectations on inflation, spending and home prices fell in February. MORE

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column argues American economy has entered phase of job creation and low inflation reminiscent of unprecedented period between 1995 and 2005; argues Federal Reserve should be cautious about raising interest rates, as economy could potentially generate millions more jobs before it begins to truly overheat. MORE

Gretchen Morgenson Fair Game column examines newly released minutes of Federal Reserve Board meetings from 2009; notes while biggest fears of critics of Fed programs to stabilize credit markets in wake of 2008 crisis never came to pass, regulators would do well to do the kinds of cost-benefit analyses of liquidity programs before another crisis ensues. MORE

The Upshot; Justin Wolfers Economic View column notes probability of high inflation or deflation is worrisome to some economists, prompting fears that such inflation expectations will hinder economic recovery. MORE

Commerce Department reports orders to American factories fell 0.2 percent in January, down from 3.5 percent in December; Labor Department reports new unemployment insurance applications rose 7,000 in latest week to seasonally adjusted 320,000. MORE

The Upshot; News Analysis; released transcripts of Federal Reserve meetings from 2009 reveal recurring theme of policy makers worrying about small issues even as global and American economies were in crisis; what is most striking is how even though there was wide understanding of severity of crisis, it did not translate necessarily into sense of great urgency. MORE

Economists are stumped as to what consumers are doing with saved money from lower energy prices since summer 2014; retail sales have been mixed, but consumer savings rate rose to 5.5 percent in January, highest level in two years; American drivers saved estimated $76 billion in 2014; answer to where savings went awaits on more data. MORE

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column notes Walmart’s decision to raise wages for a half million of its workers will likely positively affect entire economy; holds change demonstrates how wage rates are a matter of choice rather than result of traditional market forces; argues that even wider-scale raises are certainly feasible, and would have a powerful net benefit for the country as a whole. MORE

Gretchen Morgenson Fair Game column examines new evidence that high-growth financial sectors hurt the broader economy by dragging down overall growth and curbing productivity; observes that research comes amid intense debate over how big a role banking should play in the overall economy, and whether large banks like JPMorgan Chase would better serve the economy and shareholders if they were broken up. MORE

Commerce Dept releases report that shows United States economy expanded at slower pace than originally thought in fourth quarter of 2014, with economic output rising at 2.2 percent annual rate in October, November and December. MORE

Labor Department reports Consumer Price Index fell 0.7 percent in January, biggest drop since December 2008; falling gasoline prices account for decline. MORE

The Upshot; Pres Obama’s proposals to improve fortunes of middle class might be more difficult and more expensive than those implemented to help the poor since the middle class’s growth is driven more by private employers and wages they pay them; given this, best approach right now will be to institute small-scale policies that both support middle class workers and increase overall economic growth. MORE

Real Estate developers across United States are increasingly focused on wealthy buyers amid uneven economic recovery; poor credit history and high levels of debt continue to hobble low-income home buyers, whereas sales in the $1 million range remain reliably brisk, despite small share they represent of the overall housing market. MORE

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet L Yellen, appearing before Congress, reports satisfaction with economic growth; signals possibility of interest rate increase as early as June 2015, but emphasizes that patience will be key amid persistently sluggish inflation. MORE

Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rises 4.5 percent in December, up from 4.3 percent in November; Conference Board reports that its consumer confidence index fell to 96.4 in February, from revised 103.8 in January; other reports indicate slight slowdown of United States economic growth and brisk expansion in the service sector. MORE

Tabitha Waugh, registered nurse in Huntington, West Virginia, epitomizes how the health care profession is increasingly providing inroads to the middle class as industrial jobs grow scarce; Waugh earns $27 per hour and has become main breadwinner for her family of four; health care industry now provides 4.5 million middle-class positions, up from just 1.4 million in 1980 (Series: A Shifting Middle). MORE

Political Memo; Democrats and Republicans are wary of how to address improving economy in the presidential election of 2016; Republican Party is struggling with how to effectively craft a message to the times, and likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton must consider how close to associate herself with Pres Obama’s legacy. MORE

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column warns that Republican ‘charlatan caucus,’ whose members view world through ideological lens and adhere to faulty supply-side economics, continue to wield considerable influence over their party despite their consistent inaccuracy; scores rising presidential contender Scott Walker for pledging allegiance to this caucus by participating in event hosted by prominent supply-siders. MORE

Pres Obama’s 2015 Economic Report of the President highlights economic problems needing immediate attention, such as rising income inequality and stagnant wages for middle-class families; report offers expanded economic outline through 2016 presidential campaign. MORE

Nicholas Kristof Op-Ed column admits to his change of thinking regarding benefits of labor unions; comments that while once he focused on their flaws and abuses, now he can acknowledge damage the decline of unions is doing to the country; cites labor experts who note that waning union power is linked to rise in income inequality, decline in productivity and decrease in overall prosperity. MORE

Official account of Federal Reserve’s January policy-making meeting shows that it is concerned about slow pace of inflation, fragile economic growth and risk that raising benchmark interest rate too early could reverse recent gains. MORE

Labor Dept says Producer Price Index in January experienced largest decline in five years due to lower energy costs, which could bolster arguments against increasing interest rates; Commerce Dept reports housing starts fell by 2 percent in January; reports combined with others suggest United States economy is growing moderately early in first quarter. MORE

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column asserts monetary policy should be a theme of great importance in 2016 presidential elections, warning that current swirl of off-the-wall monetary views threatens to define post-election public policy; notes rising number of Republicans are adopting alarmist and conspiracy theorist views about inflation, and contends conservative views of money are often ideologically rather than practically driven. MORE

The Upshot; Robert J Schiller Economic View column argues that several factors are causing persistent anxiety and uncertainty in the American workforce despite economic improvements; cites growing income inequality, the threat of automation to existing professions and other issues related to technology; holds that such anxieties are likely still hobbling the economic recovery, and contributing to strange economic dynamics. MORE

Washington Center for Equitable Growth study finds improving educational performance in math and science scores could raise nation’s gross domestic product over next 35 years; says efforts would pay for themselves over time; United States lags behind many other advanced nations in math and science scores. MORE

Editorial assesses current state of the United States economy, and warns that relatively stable growth over past several years is not robust enough to address damage done by Great Recession; calls on Republican members of Congress to do much more the help American public instead of focusing on narrow priorities of their party. MORE

Risky Business Project, group of highly influential policy and business leaders, represents unusual if powerful component of the climate change lobby; group’s mission is to prepare American companies for climate-related threats like reduced crop yields and flooded railroads; consists of members with diverse ideologies and policy goals, though all agree that climate change could cost American business hundreds of billions of dollars. MORE

Commerce Dept reports that United States economy grew 2.6 percent in fourth quarter of 2014, which most economists greet as positive indication of economy’s progress. MORE

Federal Reserve issues upbeat assessment of economic conditions after meeting of Federal Open Market Committee and indicates that it will not raise short-term interest rates before June; statement leaves time frame for when Fed will raise benchmark interest rate from near zero open. MORE

Commerce Dept reports that orders for non-defense capital goods dropped 0.6 percent in December, far below economist expectations, as overall orders for durable goods decline by 3.4 percent; also reports rise in new-home sales and consumer confidence; data, along with several other reports, suggests mixed economic performance as falling oil prices and slow global growth weigh on United States economy. MORE

The Upshot; real price of gasoline remains significantly higher than it was in the 1990s despite plunge in prices, highlighting persistent wage slowdown and other economic factors; clean and alternative energy sources could help curb the effect of such oil price cycles on the United States economy, freeing disposable income for working Americans. MORE

Number of middle-class households, or those making $35,000 to $100,000 annually, continues to narrow since 2000 as more fall down the economic ladder; at same time, increasingly fewer of the 53 million households remaining in middle class, or about 43 percent of total, fit traditional image of married couple raising children. MORE

Three Chicago residents cited by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet L Yellen in March 2014 speech are still struggling financially but are slowly improving their lot; Jermaine Brownlee, Dorine Poole and Vicki Lira are working, but making less money than before recession; their stories highlight how recovery is still incomplete even as Fed wants to raise its benchmark interest rate in mid-2015. MORE

National Assn of Realtors reports that sales of existing homes increased 2.4 percent to annual rate of 5.04 million units in December 2014, but warns that housing recovery in United States will remain gradual due to apprehension of first-time home buyers. MORE

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column compares results of economic policy and recovery effort in Europe and America following recession; notes that America, which followed far less austere approach than Europe, is faring better economically; holds that European leaders, in implementing harsh austerity measures, have both misread their situation and behaved irresponsibly. MORE

Uneasiness affects people across country who say they are still earning less pay than before the recession and think Pres Obama overemphasized economic recovery in his State of the Union address; people anticipate few efforts to help middle class from divided government that appears partisan and frozen. MORE

Op-Ed article by Columbia Business School Dean Glenn Hubbard maintains Pres Obama’s State of the Union economic proposals are merely talking points and warns they have no hope of passing a Republican Congress; offers that they can provide plan for tax and entitlement reform, one based on growth and work, not redistribution. MORE

The Upshot; plummeting oil prices and turbulence in international markets have pushed the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 3.8 percent, lowest rate since May 2013, and far lower than mortgaged taken in 2011 an before; shift means that many Americans should reconsider refinancing. MORE

Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that index of consumer prices rose just 0.8 percent in 2014, slowest pace of inflation during an economic recovery in the last half-century; figure represents evidence that recovery is still incomplete, and could hamper the Federal Reserve as it seeks to retreat from stimulus. MORE

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column asserts that inability of the Swiss to avoid deflationary trap through currency devaluation is cautionary tale for United States and other countries struggling to determine best economic policies and interest rates; holds no nation is immune to global economic influence. MORE

The Upshot; report sponsored by Washington research group Center for American Progress finds that while wages for poor and middle class have stagnated in United States, they have risen in countries that intervene more with free market, provide more education to poor children and give employees more power in workplace; proposes solutions including more tax breaks for middle class and fewer for executive compensation. MORE

Federal Reserve issues beige book report that finds signs of moderate or modest economic growth in 12 regional banking districts in December 2014 and first part of January 2015; Fed warns that low gasoline prices are beginning to affect some industries. MORE

Labor Dept reports advertised job openings rose 2.9 percent to 4.97 million in November, highest rate in nearly 14 years; figures suggest businesses are more confident due to strong economic growth. MORE

Editorial welcomes exceptional strides in the labor market in 2014, but warns progress highlights important, ongoing weaknesses and risks; notes employment growth continues to lag behind population growth, and that December increase was largely concentrated in low-wage work; calls on new Republican majority to refrain from battles that could turn basic acts of governance into serial fiscal crises. MORE

Republicans want to take credit for nation’s improved economic conditions, factor that can significantly impact 2016 presidential election; Labor Dept reports that employers created 2.95 million jobs in 2014 and unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent. MORE

Op-Ed article by economist Jacob Bernstein calls for Congress to use Trans-Pacific Partnership, trade deal between United States and 11 other countries, to restrict currency manipulation; holds that currency is being manipulated by some other countries in manner that results in American trade deficit and loss of millions of jobs; says that diplomacy has not worked to bring about currency management, and that direct approach, like writing rules in agreement, is needed. MORE

Jan. 10, 2015

Labor Dept reports total employment numbers were up in December 2014 and unemployment rate improved to 5.6 percent; while numbers offer positive outlook for United States economy in 2015, decline in average hourly earnings suggests that economic recovery is still incomplete; combination of low unemployment and low wages complicates matters for Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise interest rates in 2015 for first time in years. MORE

Commerce Dept announces inventories of wholesale businesses increased 0.8 percent in November 2014, following 0.6 percent increase in October, largest gain since April. MORE

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