Understanding National Housing Reports from S&P Case-Shiller, NAR and others

Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 5:35PM

What you see nationally for housing trends and reports is important as a general barometer of the market, but you must take into account the local townwide market performance as well as the market specifically as it relates to your home in order to ascertain what all of these different reports mean to you and your home.

Probably the two biggest and most trusted national home reports and trends come from Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index and the National Association of REALTORS (NAR). I review these reports whenever they come out, which is usually the last week of the month. For example, the Case-Shiller indices came out today, as they always do at 9 AM Eastern time on the last Tuesday of any given month. The Case Shiller reports review non-seasonally adjusted home sales data and changes in the index are derived from actual changes in selling prices of homes. At 169.19, our region is in the New York MSA. and is the third highest in the nation, behind Washington D.C. and Los Angeles, respectively. The index references a starting point of January, 2000 which equals 100.

The NAR (The National Association of REALTORS) report that was issued just five days ago says that regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 2.6 percent to an annual level of 790,000 in September and are 6.8 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $229,400, down 3.3 percent from September 2010. You may have thought that 790,000 was an average sales price. It almost sounds like one around here. They actually mean that there are 790,000 units sold, and the average sale price is under $230,000. That’s my point .

Another thought- For example, as you know, foreclosures are affecting the housing recovery-some reports say as much as 30 percent of all sales are foreclosures. Now, I would truly hesitate to say, and I think you would agree with me that for example, nearly one third of all Westport’s sales are in distress (they’re not) or that that just one third of Bridgeport’s home sales are in distress. I can actually look that up, individually on each property that is on the market. It would take some time, but it’s do-able. My years of experience tell me quite simply that national averages do not equal local averages, especially in Fairfield County. We typically run better than those national averages, but I also think the general population is astute enough to know that.

When it comes down to brass tacks, real estate is VERY local . So local, in fact that I am sure that you, or anyone not even involved in real estate on a daily basis can think of one area in town that sells better than another area, or one area of town that traditionally has lower resale values, and maybe even one side of the street that is more desirable than other side. That happens all the time, by the way.

A Townwide average cannot be true for every home in that town. Again, its a great indicator of what’s going on in your town, but your home is unique to itself and so are the conditions regarding its value and marketability. And yes, I perform weekly statistics on five towns. Five towns that I am keenly aware of the market and its intricacies, because I have reported local statistics for years- as far back as in the 1990’s. (ouch, I am dating myself-lol) At any rate, I offer my reports and trends as an experienced local professional, experienced not only in sales, but in analyzing those sales as well. When you review my weekly reports, you might notice that I generally focus on the week, and on active listings. I give averages on sales, but I do not include the addresses of homes that sold. I give an overview at the end of the month, the end of the quarter, and/or my predictions for the upcoming months, but giving an address and a sale price doesn’t do too much of anything for you to figure out what the price of your home will be, without all the additional details that are needed in order to do so.

It is VERY IMPORTANT to know these national statistics. They help us put our market into perspective, just like a townwide analysis helps to put your area in perspective, and a neighborhood analysis helps to put your home’s price into perspective. It’s all relevant, just place the greater relevancy on the more local figures. Those national statistics are a great base to start on. If you want to price your home, or know what it’s worth. Call me, email me, and I’ll come over, preview your home, and tell you what the price is after I review the market as it pertains to your home, and your home alone. Just email or call when you need me.