Rising Dubai Real Estate Prices Pose Risk for UAE IMF Says Middle East Real Time
Post on: 15 Август, 2015 No Comment
Dubai needs to introduce further measures to shield its real estate market from an increase in speculative demand that could cloud the United Arab Emirates’ buoyant economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund said after a consultation visit to the country.
Selected U.A.E. Macroeconomic Indicators: 2010–15 IMF
The emirate’s fast-rising property sector and the countrys continued dependence on oil-related income are the major concerns for the U.A.E. where economic growth is nevertheless expected at 4.8% in 2014 and 4.5% in the coming years as tourism continues to flourish and new large-scale construction projects are being launched, the IMF said.
Despite the U.A.E.’s solid economic outlook, the IMF identified “potential risks from rapidly rising residential real estate prices and, more broadly, from the economy’s dependence on the global oil market, despite some recent progress in economic diversification.” The U.A.E. does possess “sizeable buffers” should it need to absorb a shock, the IMF said.
Dubai’s real estate sector, specifically, continues to be a source of concern.
“The strengthening real estate cycle, particularly in the Dubai residential market, could attract increased speculative demand, creating the risk of unsustainable price dynamics and an eventual, potentially disruptive correction,” the IMF said.
Dubai has already introduced a string of measures to cool down its property sector which grew at the fastest pace in the world in 2013, drawing comparisons to the years preceding the 2009 crash that pushed the emirate to the brink of financial collapse. Authorities since then imposed restrictions on mortgages and doubled transaction fees as part of an effort to prevent speculators from perturbing the domestic realty market.
The IMF said that there’s a “need for further policy action if real estate prices continue to increase rapidly” and encouraged “additional fees for reselling properties within a relatively short time to discourage speculative demand.”
Meanwhile, Dubai did make “significant progress” in repaying some of its debts stemming from the 2009 crisis, the IMF said. Markets, however, would continue to monitor entities such as Dubai World, which was at the heart of the emirate’s debt crisis, and their ability to make future repayments. In addition, the IMF urged for more transparency and avoid further risk taking at government-related entities.