The Indian Retail sector has come off age and has gone through major transformation over the last decade with a noticeable shift towards organised retailing. A T Kearney, a US Based global management consulting firm has ranked India as the fourth most attractive nation for retail investment among 30 flourishing markets.

The retail market is expected to reach a whooping Rs. 47 lakh crore by 2016-17, as it expands at a compounded annual growth rate of 15 per cent, accordingy to the Yes Bank — Assocham study.

The retail market, (including organised and unorganised retail), was at Rs. 23 lakh crore in 2011-12. According to the study, organised retail, that comprised just seven per cent of the overall retail market in 2011-12, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24 per cent and attain 10.2 per cent share of the total retail sector by 2016-17.

In terms of sheer space, the organised retail supply in 2013 was about 4.7 million square feet (sq ft). This showed a 78 per cent increase over the total mall supply of just 2.5 million sq ft in 2012.

Favourable demographics, increasing urbanisation, nuclearisation of families, rising affluence amid consumers, growing preference for branded products and higher aspirations are other factors which will drive retail consumption in India, said DS Rawat, Assocham Secretary General.

Retail classification

Retail industry can be broadly classified into two categories namely- organised and unorganised retail.

• Organized retail — Organised traders/retailers, who are licensed for trading activities and registered to pay taxes to the government.
• Unorganized retail It consists of unauthorized small shops — conventional Kirana shops, general stores, corner shops among various other small retail outlets — but remain as the radiating force of Indian retail industry.

Market Dynamics

In the past few years, Indian Retail sector has seen tremendous growth in the organised segment. Major domestic players have stepped into the retail arena with long term, ambitious plans to expand their business across verticals, cities and formats.

Companies like Tata, Reliance, Adani Enterprise and Bharti have been investing considerably in the booming Indian Retail market. Along with these giant retailers, a number of transnational brands have also entered into the market to set up retail chains in close association with bigger Indian companies.

High consumer spending over the years by the young population (more than 31% of the country is below 14 years) and sharp rise in disposable income are driving the Indian organised retail sectors growth. Even Tier I & Tier II cities and towns are witnessing a major shift in consumer preferences and lifestyles, the result of which, they have emerged as attractive markets for retailers to expand their presence.

The Indian retail sector is highly fragmented and the unorganised sector has around 13 million retail outlets that account for around 95-96% of the total Indian retail industry. However, going forward, the organised sectors growth potential is expected to increase due to globalisation, high economic growth, and improved lifestyle.

Although the growth potential in the sector is immense, there are obstacles too, that could slow the pace of growth for new entrants. Rigid regulations, high personnel costs, real estate costs, lack of basic infrastructure, and highly competitive domestic retailer groups are some such challenges.

Key drivers of the Indian Retail Industry

• Emergence of nuclear families
• An increase in the double-income households trend
• Large working population
• Reasonable Real estate prices
• Increase in disposable income and customer aspiration
• Demand as well as increase in expenditure for luxury items
• Growing preference for branded products and higher aspirations
• Growing liberalization of the FDI policy in the past decade
• Increasing urbanisation,
• Rising affluence amid consumers

• A long way to meet international standards
• Lack of efficient supply-chain management
• Lack of required retail space
• No fixed consumption pattern
• Shortage of trained manpower
• Lack of proper infrastructure and distribution channel

Emerging sectors/trends in Indian retailing

Within retail, the emerging sectors would be food and grocery, apparel, electronics, e-commerce, fashion and lifestyle.

Incorporation of technology in the organised retail segment has been something to reckon with in the past few years. Use of computers for merchandise planning and management, control of inventory costs and supplies and replenishment of goods done electronically, internal store billing, etc has changed the face of product retailing.

Online retail business is the next gen format which has high potential for growth in the near future. After conquering physical stores, retailers are now foraying into the domain of e-retailing. The retail industry is all set to test waters over the online medium, by selling products through websites. Food and grocery stores comprises the largest chunk of the Indian retail market.

An emerging trend in this segment is the virtual formats where customer orders are taken online through web portals which are delivered at the door step the very same day or the following day. This trend has been catching up with most of the large sized retail chains that have their websites.

The Road Ahead

According to panel members at the seventh Food and Grocery Forum India, the opportunities in food and grocery retail in India are immense, given that it constitutes about 69 per cent of Indias total retail market. The Indian retail market, currently estimated at $490 billion, is project to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 6 per cent to reach $865 billion by 2023. Modern retail with a penetration of only 5% is expected to grow about six times from the current 27 billion USD to 220 billion USD, across all categories and segments.

Organised Retail is emerging as the new phenomenon in India and despite the slump, the market is growing exponentially. As economic growth brings more of Indias people into the consuming classes and organized retail lures more and more existing shoppers, by 2015, more than 300 million shoppers are likely to patronize organized retail chains.

Consumer markets in emerging market economies like India are growing rapidly owing to robust economic growth. India’s modern consumption level is set to double within five years to US$ 1.5 trillion from the present level of US$ 750 billion.

The growing middle class is an important factor contributing to the growth of retail in India. By 2030, it is estimated that 91 million households will be middle class, up from 21 million today. Also by 2030, 570 million people are expected to live in cities, nearly twice the population of the United States today.

Thus, with tremendous potential and huge population, India is set for high growth in consumer expenditure. With India’s large young population and high domestic consumption, the macro trends for the sector look favorable.

By Anasua Chakraborty