Alan J. Heavens, Inquirer Real Estate Columnist

Posted: Sunday, January 18, 2015, 3:00 AM

If I’ve learned anything since the downturn, it’s that you cannot predict the future of the real estate market, either in the short term or the long.

When paired with all real estate is local, predictability goes out the window, because what is happening nationally or regionally may not be the Hi-Nella experience.

Yet each year, housing economists make a stab at predictions. I’m not singling out Jed Kolko at Trulia for any reason other than I have his prediction.

Consumers, Kolko said, are upbeat, and they think 2015 will be a better year than 2014 to buy, to rent, and especially to sell.

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Nearly three-quarters of Americans still think homeownership is part of their American Dream, unchanged from last year, he said — including 78 percent of millennials.

As the jobs situation improves, unemployment is no longer as big a factor, Kolko said, although rising home prices are a growing obstacle to homeownership.

The year 2014 was not as good as real estate agents and economists had believed it would be.

David Marcantuno, an agent with Keller Williams Realty in Washington Township, Gloucester County, acknowledged that last year was not as big of an improvement as we wanted, but the market in this area is definitely better than the last couple of years.

Marcantuno said he thought 2015 was going to be a little volatile, or up and down, because of increasing interest rates and political issues. He added, however, that it will again still be an improvement from 2009.

Last year in the Pennsylvania suburbs was a very difficult market to judge, said John Duffy, owner of Duffy Real Estate on the Main Line.

In one quarter, properties in all price ranges were selling, and the next quarter sales slowed down for no apparent reason, he said.

Yet we had one of our best years in 36, and our sales seemed to cover all price ranges, but there is still a lack of consumer confidence and certainly no sense of urgency with the buyers, Duffy said.

The vast majority of buyers don’t believe that interest rates will increase significantly soon, he said, so they are not in a rush to purchase.

Many first-time buyers realize that there is a large inventory of homes, and they seem to be holding off until they feel more secure about their employment, and, in some cases, pay down their student loans, Duffy said.

First-time buyers, as always, are critical because they drive the market and start the selling chain for the mid- and upper-price homes.

Duffy said he expected 2015 to follow the lines of 2014, with rates staying low and minimum appreciation of homes.

Properties that will be in demand will be those in good condition, priced properly, with manageable square footage, and in walkable areas, he said.

Mark Wade, of Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Fox & Roach Realtors in Center City, said that market saw more buyer demand, which leads to a lessening of inventory and ultimately a reversal of the downward trending of prices.

The trend will continue for 2015 as buyers compete for limited inventory and prices inch upward, he said. Center City real estate is always ruled by demand — and demand since early 2014 has been strong, and I believe will continue for some time.

Kolko acknowledged that the recovery in 2015 faces a tricky hand-off.

The rebound effect is fading, but fundamentals like job growth and household formation aren’t strong enough to take the reins of the recovery, he said.

Progress in 2015, therefore, will be mixed.