Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Analysis

Thu 3/12/15

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation — Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis — Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.

Conventional Interpretation — Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis — Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.

Volatility Indicator: The volatility trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, has just switched to up.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-319.20) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-1.75) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-102.28) recently crossed below the sell line into bearish territory, and is currently short. This short position should be covered when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation,CCI (-102.28) is bearish, but has begun showing some strength. Begin looking for an attractive point to cover short positions and return to the sidelines.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, ADX has turned down, indicating a deterioration in the current trend. Look for the market to get a bit choppy here. A decline from current levels is possible here.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory. The ADX has turned downward indicating diminishing confidence in the current trend. Consider liquidating any bearish positions here.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 49.15). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 49.15). However, this by itself isn’t a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

Open Interest Indicator: No open interest value in the database for this bar. Note: Open interest not available for all data types.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

Stochastic — Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The long term trend has changed direction. Now the long term trend is UP! The market looks strong both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (42.72). A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought.

Stochastic — Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The long term trend has changed direction. Now the long term trend is UP! The short term trend is UP. SlowK was up this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see an up move here. if next bar’s SlowK is also up, then a possible bottom may have been established. The market looks strong both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (28.56). A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.