Ailing markets reflect investors fear of diving in
Post on: 12 Июнь, 2015 No Comment
There’s no doubt that the bull market is long gone. The bear market is sticking around longer than even pessimists thought possible. And U.S. stock indexes are struggling to stay above their post-Sept.-11 lows.
Investors are experiencing a gut check that ranks right up there with the 1973-74 mauling, the trio of down years during World War II and the four consecutive wealth-destroying years that defined the Great Depression.
For three straight days, two of the market’s broadest measures — the Nasdaq composite and the Standard & Poor’s 500 indexes — have come near to closing below their Sept. 21 lows.
Wednesday, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped below those levels in early trading as financial markets reeled from news that WorldCom overstated revenue by $3.8 billion for 2001 and the first quarter of 2002. But, stocks rebounded and the Nasdaq closed 6 points above the level that marked the bottom of September’s panic-induced plunge. The S&P ended 8 points above its Sept. 21 close.
But, one more good sell-off could send the market into a serious relapse and spiraling toward lows not seen since October 1998.
Clearly, investing in stocks is very different in the new millennium than it was in the ’90s. Gary Anderson, of market research firm Anderson & Loe, describes the change this way: Take a market top, and flip it upside down. Ed Kerschner, top strategist at UBS Warburg, calls it the decade of normal.
Normal, so far, has mainly meant losses, And many investors are questioning if stocks are still the best investment for the long term. The brutal 30-month market decline — the worst in six decades — has forced them to consider if they want to invest in stocks at all.
Investors’ mood is not encouraging. Optimism in June hit its lowest level since the fearful days of September, a UBS/Gallup Poll of investor attitudes found. Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Prudential Securities, says the new concern is that we have lost a generation of investors, much like we did after the Great Crash.
Stocks, a must-own asset just a few years back, are now getting a lot of competition from other investments considered less risky. For example, anecdotal evidence suggests that real estate is currently a more popular alternative than stocks. Almost six of 10 investors polled by UBS and Gallup said real estate is more attractive than it was six months ago, even though some economists warn that the red-hot housing market is a bubble waiting to burst.
Similarly, 35% said bonds are more attractive than they were at the start of the year. And 28% said gold, the ultimate defensive hedge, is also more attractive.
Biggest winners, losers after Sept. 11