Your MTGO Stock Analyst Troubled Times but Bright Future

Post on: 16 Март, 2015 No Comment

Your MTGO Stock Analyst Troubled Times but Bright Future

By many measures we are in troubled times with Magic’s Digital Product. Casual play is way down, community/chat is non-existent, most formats have seen a decrease in players joining events, etc. but most troubling seems to be coming straight from the mothership WOTC. In the recent article Magic Online: Survey Says! detailing their recent survey results from players, WOTC has concluded that:

  • Study participants enjoyed playing and drafting in the new version. Highlights include the combat clarity provided by the red zone and the stack, quick access to adjusting stops, and the ability to build a deck while drafting. Finding a match and building a deck, especially through importing, were also well received, though there are elements that could certainly be improved.
  • Similar to the user study, the highest-rated areas of the client center around playing Magic, including playing matches, finding opponents, and the variety of formats and events offered.
  • Where does WOTC think they need focus for the future from the survey?

    1. Communication Improvement.
      • Commentary: Are we really talking about communication in 2014, this is something we should have gotten right in 2001.
      • Stability and performance.
        • Commentary: We have been talking about stability and performance for the last decade, we just had a new version released, we should be talking about cool new features, superior usability and great graphics. In my book to be talking about stability and performance at this point is frustrating.
        • Trading.
          • Commentary: Sure they need to fix trading and make it better, but I do not see this this as the golden ticket to making v4 great.
          • More social platform.
            • Commentary: Fine advice, do you really need a survey to figure out chat in v4 is horrible?

            By reading the articles on PureMTGO and other Magic sites, talking to players and experiencing v4 myself I can say WOTC has at best wasted a lot of money on a survey or at worse distilled the wrong messages/feelings from their customer base. But I am here to say.

            The Future of Magic Online is Bright

            OK so I have your attention, with the information presented and with WOTC’s track record how can I make such a claim? Because I just listened to Hasbro’s Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. For those unfamiliar to the business side of this let me help educate. Hasbro is the parent company that owns WOTC. Hasbro is a public company that lists on the NASDAQ exchange so people can purchase shares of the company for $57.53/share. As a public company, Hasbro gives quarterly earnings guidance on how they are doing financially and detail their strategic direction on many of the core products they own. When you listen to these calls you will hear a canned speech by the CEO, CFO or such followed by a Q&A session. Often how this works is you get some good info at a macro level but lower level details are not disclosed. For Hasbro, Magic is looked at as a franchise brand and part of their games category of products.

            As I mentioned we do not have specific details on exactly how MTGO did for Hasbro, but I did learn a few key pieces of information.

            Your MTGO Stock Analyst Troubled Times but Bright Future
            1. Franchise Brands up 36% year-over-year. All seven Franchise Brands grew double-digits year-over-year including LITTLEST PET SHOP; MAGIC: THE GATHERING; MONOPOLY; MY LITTLE PONY; NERF; PLAY-DOH; TRANSFORMERS.
              • Commentary: 36% overall and Magic grew at least in the double-digits is significant. As a franchise brand with this type of growth Hasbro is very vested to making this brand successful.
              • Games category revenues increased 2% in the third quarter to $395.2 million. Franchise Brands MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY grew in the third quarter, as did SIMON SWIPE and OPERATION.
                • Commentary: In Hasbro’s games category Magic is critical, Magic is named with Monopoly as having a larger impact to Hasbro’s revenue than any other games category product.
              • Third quarter revenues increased 7%. We grew across all major operating segments of Hasbro, including a return to growth in the U.S. and Canada segment, and continued growth in the International and our Entertainment and Licensing segments. Profitability increased as adjusted operating profit in the quarter increased 9% and our operating profit margin was 19.4% of revenues.
                • Commentary: Hasbro as a company is doing well. They continue to see strong growth in revenues and profitability with a strong future therefore they should be willing to invest in strategic areas where needed.

                  Hasbro’s View on the Magic Strategic Play

                  1. MAGIC: THE GATHERING also grew globally, increasing in both the U.S. and Canada segment and International segment. The response to the July release of the Magic 2015 Core Set and September release of Khans of Tarkir positions the brand well into 2015. We believe there is tremendous future potential for MAGIC: THE GATHERING as it continues to grow around the world. We are investing in the brand, both in digital and analog play, through technology and storytelling.
                    • Commentary: Critical words — investing in the brand. digital. through technology. Simply put they see Magic Online as having tremendous future potential and Hasbro will invest in the digital platform through technology spend.

                    • Segment operating profit in the U.S. and Canada increased 16% in the quarter, reflecting the higher revenue levels, favorable mix and improved expense leverage in the quarter despite being partially offset by a challenging environment in Canada. We also continued to invest in our business including support of key initiatives such as MAGIC: THE GATHERING.
                      • Commentary: They have already invested in Magic in the past which impacted their operating profit but they feel it is necessary and worthwhile to continue.

                      • SD&A declined slightly as a percentage of quarterly revenues reflecting the impact of higher revenues. These expenses reflect continued investments in our business, including international operations and MAGIC: THE GATHERING.
                        • Commentary: Same as above they are willing to invest as needed in Magic even if it cost short term expenses.

                          In wrapping up the Q&A, Brian Goldner, Hasbro President and CEO said Magic Online, which our fans quite like and we will continue to drive and invest. So by all accounts, Magic is a brand that Hasbro sees as a strategic asset that they are willing to invest in both the analog and digital space.

                          Magic Online’s Future

                          What I hope you took away from this article is some hope. Hope in that it is clear that Hasbro as a company is doing well and has the capital and desire to invest in Magic Online for its future success. The current state of Magic is very bad from my perspective but I am not selling out my cards as Hasbro is clearly backing this brand and usually with money and investment comes success, it’s just a matter of time.

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