Top 8 Ways Lose Money On Bonds
Post on: 22 Октябрь, 2015 No Comment
Most investors are familiar with the most common ways of losing money in the fixed-income market, but there are other, lesser known — and equally effective — ways to drive yourself to the poorhouse using fixed-income securities. Here we attempt to survey them all, so that you can learn to avoid potential problems and better prepare for inevitable ones.
1. Trading Losses
Losing money is easy if you’re buying and selling bonds as a trader. Here are the principal methods to bleed cash.
- Interest Rate Moves
As all bond traders know, when rates go up, bond prices fall. If you haven’t read the rate climate effectively, you’re going to get hurt. This is probably the single greatest source of trading losses in the market. (Read Managing Interest Rate Risk to learn how to minimize this risk.)
A couple of bad quarters or a punishing one-time event can force rating agencies to reconsider the credit-worthiness of a borrower. Should even a single notch be chipped from an issuer, its bonds will take a significant hit. (Learn more about corporate and personal credit scoring in What Is A Corporate Credit Rating? and Consumer Credit Report: What’s On It .)
For example, you might buy ABC Company’s bond for 96 when its bid/ask spread was 88/96 and then sell it a month later when it had appreciated and the bid/ask was 95/103 — but your sell price at 95 is still a point less than your purchase price. Illiquidity means your call was right, but you lost where it counted. (For further reading on liquidity risk, see Options Hazards That Can Bruise Your Portfolio .)
2. Inflation
Your next opportunity to lose money comes from inflation. Very briefly, if you’re earning 5% per year in your fixed-income portfolio, and inflation is running at 6%, you’re losing money. It’s as simple as that. (For further reading, check out Coping With Inflation Risk and Curbing The Effects Of Inflation .)
3. Inflation-Indexed Bonds Or TIPS
Here’s one that not so many investors are familiar with. Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) (called real return bonds for Canadian investors) are supposed to be the answer to that inflation issue. Unfortunately, there are still three distinct ways to lose money on these investments.
This is not an everyday occurrence but certainly a possibility. Because of the way values on TIPS are calculated, an extended period of deflation could return you less cash on maturity than you originally invested. Your purchasing power might be intact, but you would emerge with less than a regular bond would have paid you. (To learn more about deflation, read What does deflation mean to investors? )
4. Bond And Money Market Funds
There are two distinct ways to lose on funds.
- Redemptions
Should there be a large call to redeem from the fund (on a popular manager’s departure, suspicion of corruption, etc.), management might be forced to sell off significant holdings to pay out investors. Should these issues be illiquid, both the fund and investors would realize losses. In some instances, redemption fees might also add significantly to losses. (Read more about the risks surrounding redemption in Common Mistakes By Fixed-Income Investors .)
5. Foreign Bonds
Here are four exciting ways to lose your hard-earned income using the foreign-bond desk.
- Exchange controls
Your friendly, foreign-bond-issuing nation decides to impose exchange controls. No money can leave the country. Too bad, foreigner.
6. Mortgage-Backed Securities
This investment offers a rather uncomplicated way to separate you from your money.
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are collateralized by the monthly mortgage payments of John Q. Householder. When he runs into personal financial problems, or when the value of his house depreciates significantly, he may default on his mortgage. If enough neighbors join him, your MBS will lose a great deal of value and will likely trade without liquidity. When you finally decide to sell it, you will lose money. (Read about an example of mortgage default on a large scale in The Fuel That Fed The Subprime Meltdown .)
For example, municipalities sometimes (though not often) have their credit ratings downgraded after agencies decide that a recent budget contains imprudent spending or an investment portfolio has suffered significant losses. A downgrade might also occur if the company that is insuring the bond loses it AAA rating. (Read more in The Debt Ratings Debate .)