Russia Says Ruble Finds Bottom Pondering 2015 s Future Shocks Emerging Markets Daily

Post on: 16 Март, 2015 No Comment

Russia Says Ruble Finds Bottom Pondering 2015 s Future Shocks Emerging Markets Daily

By Tiernan Ray

Happy Boxing Day, if you’re arriving here to find out what’s been going on while U.S. markets were on holiday. Emerging market measures are turning positive after a rough beginning to the week.

Among equities turning positive, the The Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX ) is enjoying its second up day, rising 1.2% to $16.15, after rising Wednesday but suffering declines Monday and Tuesday. That follows a 2% decline in the benchmark Russia RTS  index, which was a reversal of two days of gains through Christmas eve and day in Russia.

The ruble deteriorated slightly, rising to 53.7 to the dollar from 51, ending five days of gains, as Bloomberg ’s Ksenia Galouchko and Vladimir Kuznetsov note today. They quote money manager Vadim Bit-Avragim of Kapital Asset Management in Moscow opining “as long as oil remains at these levels, the devaluation risk will persist.”

The Russian stock decline, and the ruble’s slide, comes amidst some mixed signals from Russia’s government.

Russias central bank said Friday it would provide $1.9 billion in bailout funds to Trust Bank. a Russian financial that last week was near collapse over the fall in the Ruble.

Financial Times ’s Kathrin Hille reports today Trust is the first institution to be so affected by the currency’s decline. Integrated oil producer Rosneft  (ROSN ) was among gainers in the last two sessions.

But surprise! Russia’s government says the ruble crisis is over! Hille reports in a separate piece that Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov said on Friday “extreme signs of a liquidity squeeze due to the collapse of the rouble had already receded and the currency had ‘found its equilibrium’.”

Measures like the Trust bailout come as the company’s reserves have fallen the most in six years, as noted yesterday by Bloomberg’s Olga Tanas and Vladimir Kuznetsov.

Things were relatively more quite in Turkey. where the ISE 100 index of major equities rose the last three days, as the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The bank plans to maintain a “tight monetary policy,” writes Onur Ant with Bloomberg.

The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR ) is down a penny today after rising on Wednesday.

Russia Says Ruble Finds Bottom Pondering 2015 s Future Shocks Emerging Markets Daily

The Wisdom Tree India Earnings Fund (EPI ) is up 3 cents following down days Tuesday and Wednesday. Indias stock market was closed yesterday.

China bounced back a bit. The Market Vectors China ETF (PEK ) is up $2.92, or almost 7%, at $44.96, following a 3.4% rise by China’s Shanghai Composite Index on Thursday. This is the first positive day for the ETF after three down days this week. The Journal’s Daniel Inman notes this morning that China’s financials have been helped by the government’s newfound willingness to let banks draw upon deposits as part of their capital base for loans.

For a broad overview of emerging market risks in the new year, check out Richard Barley  at the Journal, who yesterday wrote that challenges deeper than the ruble crisis loom for 2015.

Writes Barley, “growth isn’t what it used to be” with the developing world growth rate collectively going from 5.5 points above developed market growth to just 2.8 points, according to IMF forecasts; and monetary policy shifting, with U.S. tightening affecting a lot of emerging market economies based on the dollar. He also sees oil shocks from declining prices continuing to have fallout in 2015.

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