A billion dollars richer today, mining billionaire Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest.

Not many people make $1 billion in a month, especially in a sector of the economy which is supposed to be in decline, but that’s just what Australian iron ore entrepreneur, Andrew Forrest has done thanks to China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for raw materials.

Between early last month and today Forrest’s fortune has risen from $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion as the share price of the company he founded just over a decade ago, Fortescue Metals Group Fortescue Metals Group. has risen strongly.

With a personal holding of one billion shares in the Australian stock exchange listed Fortescue, the rise and fall of Forrest’s fortune is easy to track, whether it’s going up or down.

Since October 7 Fortescue’s share price has risen from A$4.78 ($4.54) to a closing price earlier today of A$5.84 ($5.56).

That’s not the way it’s supposed to be with most investment banks tipping a fall in the iron ore price, and the share prices of iron ore mining companies, because demand for the steel-making material has been expected to decline as China tries to re-focus its economy on services and consumption and less on minerals-heavy construction.

Credit Suisse is the latest to echo the view that Chinese raw material demand is poised to fall, taking mineral prices with it, and making now a good time to go short in commodities.

“We think the time has come to consider gaining broad-based downside exposure to base metals,” Credit Suisse told clients in a note circulated on Monday.

Eventually, the commodity doomsayers could be proved correct but one notable break from the consensus view of a pending fall in prices was circulated the day after the Credit Suisse report by rival investment bank, Macquarie.

Cost-Cutting Benefits

The focus of the Macquarie report was Fortescue which the bank said had enjoyed the double benefit of the high iron ore price which has enabled it to restructure a debt-laden balance sheet, while management has been able to undertake a much-needed cost-cutting campaign.

Higher prices and lower costs have shifted Fortescue, a single commodity (“one trick”) company out of danger from a fall in the iron ore price from its current $135 a ton to less than $100/t, and perhaps as low as $80/t, which some banks are tipping.

Macquarie thinks the chance of a dramatic price fall has passed thanks to ongoing Chinese demand for iron ore. a trend which was highlighted yesterday in October shipping data from Port Hedland, Australia’s (and the world’s) major iron ore export port with shipments hitting an all-time monthly record of 28.9 million tons, 33% higher than in October last year.

From being a company at risk, Macquarie now sees Fortescue being able to service its $12 billion debt load even if the iron ore price drops to $93/t, and for the miner to be handsomely profitable thanks to cost cutting which is expected to drive the all-in cost of production down to $62/t.