Arm Yourself Against Volatility

Post on: 23 Апрель, 2015 No Comment

Arm Yourself Against Volatility

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The word of the day is volatility and if we stick with the root definition of the word (tending to fluctuate sharply), that’s exactly what we’ve seen in the stock market these last few weeks.

Indeed, we saw a nice V-shaped pattern across all the major stock indices and, as of Friday’s close, we’re some 3% or so from the 52-week high for each of the major market indices. That’s a sharp move when you consider the S&P 500 was down 10% over the 30 days leading up to the Oct. 15 bottom.

Tracing the drop in the S&P 500 there we several factors that weighed on the market at a time when it was trading at an all-time high. There were triple-dip concerns in the eurozone, a slowing Chinese economy, Russia, ISIS and the Middle East, as well as Ebola. Don’t forget the market was anticipating the end of QE tapering and the conversation had shifted to not if, but when the Fed would begin to move interest rates higher.

I won’t say it was a perfect storm, but after the 15% climb in the S&P 500 since the February lows that wall of negativity was bound to weigh on the market.

The question is whether or not we are out of the volatility woods.

With the slowing in the eurozone and China, as well as the fact that roughly 40% of S&P 500 revenues are derived from markets outside of the U.S. we have to at least consider that earnings growth expectation that call for the S&P 500 to deliver 10% growth in 2015 could be a tad aggressive. For context, the consensus expectation for S&P 500 earnings growth this year is 7.1%, and it can be argued that robust stock repurchase programs are fueling a portion of that growth. Put it together and stocks may not be as cheap as they were just a few weeks ago.

Arm Yourself Against Volatility

Between falling oil prices, commentary that prices were being slashed in the eurozone to jumpstart demand and the rising dollar, there’s enough to give to make the average investor go hmm when pondering revenue implications in the coming months.

Even though the Fed is holding off finishing its QE tapering, past some point in time it will complete what it has started. Will the European Central Bank loosen policy as much as the market expects? Will China look to reignite its growth rate with its own sugary stimulus program?

Back to the question at hand — do I see an end to the volatility in the near term? — I do not. While that may have been a problem in the past that vexed long-only investors, today there are all manners of exchange traded funds, including inverse ETFs that you can use to add some downside protection to your portfolio. Three of the more common inverse ETFs are the ProShares Short Dow 30 (DOG), ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH) and the ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ), which is the inverse play on the Nasdaq 100. There are many others, including ones that are far more aggressive, such as the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS), and one of the benefits of ETFs is the ability to trade options on them as well.

At times like this in the market, it makes sense to hedge your position with at least a sprinkling of such ETFs. Like insurance on your car or home, it may cost you a little bit, but if something happens you’ll be happy you have it.

At the time of publication, Versace’s portfolio was long SH.


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