The model is in a soft sell mode. A move above US$1,313 would probably signal the end of the bear market in gold. Seasonality remains weak until June. CoT-Data suggests that Gold needs more corrective price action before a contrarian buy signal will flash.

A short-term bullish trade would be triggered if Gold moves above $1,225. As long as the weekly and monthly charts remain in sell mode a recovery will only last a few weeks.

Gold Daily Chart:

Since January 26th Gold has been in a clear downtrend and has given back nearly all of its gains. Between $1,190 and $1,220 Gold remains in no mans land. Currently the bulls trying to start a recovery but so far they did not manage to bring prices back above the US$1,220 level. On the positive side the bearish embedded stochastic has been lost and is about to trigger a buy signal. A recovery could bring the gold price back to its 50-MA ($1,228) or its 200-MA ($1,248). I do not see more potential until spring. Especially because the CoT-Data suggest that Gold needs more downside action and seasonality will remain weak.

Due to the strong US-Dollar Gold in Euro is looking much better but will need more time to digest the parabolic move in January.

I still believe that we will see a new low below US$1,132 in the coming months. I would not be surprised to see the Dow/Gold-Ratio topping out around 20! Therefore I am patiently waiting for a great entry setup somewhere between May and July this year. Short-term traders could sell Gold short at $1.250 and use the weekly Parabolic-Sar ($1,305) as a trailing stopp. Be aware to use accurate position sizing as this stopp is still far away. Investors should accumulate Gold below $1,200 until they hold 10-20% of their net-worth in Gold & Silver.

Long-term personal view:

The return of the precious metals secular bull market is moving step by step closer and should lead to the final parabolic phase (could start in summer 2015 or 2016 and last for 2-5 years or even longer).

Before this can start Gold will need a final selloff down to $1,050-$980.

Long-term price target DowJones/Gold-Ratio remains around 1:1.

Long-term price target Gold/Silver-Ratio remains around 10:1 (for every ounce of gold there are 9 ounces of silver mined, historically the ratio was at 15:1 during the roman empire).

Long-term price target for Gold remains at US$5,000 to US$8,900 per ounce within the next 5-8 years.

Fundamentally, as soon as the current bear market is over Gold should start the final 3rd phase of this long-term secular bull market. 1st stage saw the miners closing their hedge books, the 2nd stage continuously presented us news about institutions and central banks  buying or repatriating gold. The coming 3rd and finally parabolic stage will end in the distribution to small inexperienced new traders & investors who will be subject to blind greed and frenzied panic.

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