Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up

• Baltic Dry Index — minus 29 to 2,678. (chart )
• Dollar graph in lower right corner of this page — (chart of dollar index ) (live java chart )
• Headlines & leaders — (Bloomberg) China Curbs Speculation in Agriculture Futures As Prices Surge to Records // China Stocks Fall for 4th Day on Concern About Inflation; Developers Drop // Japan Output Slide, Deepening Deflation Point to Economic Slump // Bonds Suggest China Central Bank’s Inflation Battle to Heat Up // India Seeks Ban on Iron-Ore Shipments, Minister Says // Asian Stocks Decline as Sharp, Samsung Electronics Stoke Earnings Concern // EU Bows to German Call for Permanent Debt Mechanism // U.K. Consumer Confidence Rises in `Prelude’ to Cuts, GfK Says // Euro Falls as Summit Renews Concern Over Sovereign-Debt Crisis; Yen Gains // European Stocks Are Little Changed; Telecinco Gain Offsets Sandvik Decline // Foreclosure Freeze Cuts Sales, Supply in Hardest-Hit U.S. States // Jobless Likely to Shun U.S. Election That Is Focused on Their Plight // U.S. Economy Grew 2% as Consumer Spending Rises // Chicago Purchasing Managers Say Activity Accelerated // Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Decreased in October // Poll: Americans Don’t Know Economy Expanded With Tax Cuts
• The Euro is only trading 1/10 of 1% lower against the US Dollar, while NYMEX crude is off more than 1.1%. Gold is up nearly a full percent and silver is higher by 2%. Base metals ended the session lower. Indicator charts show nickel was in trouble early on, opening lower, but when the US GDP failed to impress and the Dollar began losing some earlier steam, nickel began a slow gradual climb thru the rest fo the session. For the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $10.43/lb . That is down a nickel for the day, $.09/lb for the week, and down $.18/lb on the month. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses fell slightly yesterday and now stand just over the 128,150 tonne mark. Sucden’s day old chart shows trend bound nickel trading thru yesterday (chart here ). After having appeared stalled over the past few weeks, the Baltic Dry Index made a noticeable drop yesterday, following that up today with a less eyebrow raising decline of 29 points. For the month, the BDI gained 232 points and the index has risen 8.66% since Sept 30. Initial GDP numbers for the US were released today, showing an economy sputtering along at a snail’s pace. Consumer spending allegedly rose at its highest pace since 2006, but if consumers are spending, few other gauges reflect it. Consumer confidence numbers fell while Chicago PMI numbers rose. Wall Street is having problems deciding what to do with the numbers. And thus ends the last working day of the first 1/3 of the last 1/4 of year 1 of the second decade of the 21st century. And only 57 shopping days till Christmas. That’s enough with the numbers, unless you are of the doom and gloom crowd, and for you the next scheduled end of the world event of Dec 21, 2012 — is just 783 days away.
• Have a relaxing and safe weekend!

Reports

• Commodities Daily — pdf here
• Reuters Metals Insider — pdf here

• MF Global Commodity Market Overview — pdf here

Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments

• (Dow Jones) Russia’s OAO Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest nickel producer by production volumes, Friday reported a rise in third quarter nickel and platinum production, and a slight drop in copper output. The company said its third-quarter nickel output was 74,942 metric tons, up 12% from 66,703 tons a year earlier.
• Why Did China Boom? — multimedia project here
• Toward Common Ground: Bridging the Political Divide to Reduce Spending — more
• IRS Paid Out $111 Million in Erroneous Stimulus Tax Breaks — more
• Macro Musing: Are We in Another Jobless Recovery? — more
• Executives Reluctant to Move for New Job — more
• The Big Lie on Fraudclosure — more
• Negative real interest rates — more

China steel assn suspects Sept steel output was misreported — Discrepancies in China’s steel output figures in September could be the result of deliberate misreporting on the part of regional governments and enterprises, an official with China’s steel association said on Friday. — more

Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 1PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:15 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.12/lb lower, with all London traded base metals lower on a higher US Dollar. The Euro is trading lower against the US Dollar, by more than 4/10 of 1%. NYMEX crude is down nearly 6/10 of 1% and trading at $81.71/barrel. Gold is up over 1/2 of 1% and silver is higher by 2/3 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets fell, with China off 1/2 of 1%. European markets are lower this morning, while US futures show Wall Street may also open down. Nickel inventories fell slightly yesterday. US markets will most likely be led today by the release of initial 3rd quarter GDP numbers to be released shortly, overshadowed by nervousness of Fed news next week.
• Bloomberg morning base metal news — more
• LME Morning — Metals prices under fire on demand concerns — more

Reports

• Daily Market Report — pdf here
• Commodities Report — pdf here
• Commodities Daily — pdf here
• Morning Montra — pdf here
• Daily Overview — pdf here
• Metals Insight — pdf here
• SSINA Releases Market Data for July 2010 — pdf here

Commodity/Economic Comments

• Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments — Metal prices ended mostly higher yesterday (except for lead and zinc) supported by better-than-expected data out of the US showing initial claims falling to a three-month low, as well as a weaker dollar, which retreated to $1.3950 against the Euro. Given the extent of the greenback’s decline, we were surprised commodities did not do better than they actually did yesterday. We have to assume that funds are not piling back into the asset class as they likely are hunkering down ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. Estimates from a Reuters survey of economists on what the Fed may do on QEII range from $250 billion to a high of $2 trillion. Preceding this decision, we should also get the results of the US Congressional elections, likely another important driver, particularly for the US equity markets. Later today, we get another important snapshot of the US economy; third quarter GDP readings will be released, expected up 2.0% from the prior quarter, and although the reading is backward looking, the number should still figure prominently in the Fed’s QEII decision. In addition to this release, we get Chicago PMI readings for October (expected at 58), as well as October Michigan consumer confidence levels (expected at 68). Out of Europe, we have reports that European inflation unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest in almost two years, while unemployment came in at a 12-year high. Metals are jittery again as of this writing, as we are seeing broad-based declines led by copper, which dipped to a low of $8140 at one point earlier in the day. Zinc and lead are losing the most ground, as they rallied the most to begin with earlier in the month. We expect the weaker tone in metals to be with us for much of next week heading into the Fed announcement, and would therefore hold off on any long-side price-fixing for the moment. Nickel is at $22,810, down $290, as the short-term trend continues to deteriorate. (read Ed Meir’s complete morning base metals report here )
• (Yieh) Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco) has announced to remain the prices of domestic and export offers unchanged for November due to the soft nickel price and poor demand in current market.
• (Interfax) China’s Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) plans to accord molybdenum a protected mining status and impose quotas on its production in 2011, the state-owned China Securities Journal reported Oct. 29.
• (Interfax) China boosted its export of crude steel and steel-related products to 36.24 million tons in the first nine months of 2010, up 116.73 percent year-on-year, according to statistics released by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), an industry organization that represents China’s major steel mills, on Oct.29.
• (Interfax) China has begun iron ore price negotiations for next year, Vice Chairman Luo Bingsheng of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), which represents China’s major steel mills, said at an Oct. 29 press conference.
• AAR Reports Rail Traffic Remains Up Over 2009 — more

Even Under Crisis Of Electricity Supply, Xstrata Increases Facilities For FeCr Production = To Construct Independent Electric Power Plant, Advantage Of Major Resources Company — Under the circumstances, which new projects to produce ferro-alloys have been postponed because of a crisis of electricity supply in South Africa, Xstrata announced on the 20th of October that the Company has decided to implement the second phase of the Lion Project. — more

Firms face stronger competition in mining M&A transactions: Report — China, which dominated the global mining and metals transactions market in 2009, has faced stronger competition this year, being ranked fourth in global market share in the first three quarters, the consultancy firm Ernst & Young said on Thursday. — more

Modest Steel Price Recovery May Not Last — In the Russian Federation, metallurgical plants have adopted controversial pricing positions for October. — more

Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes — (for today’s figures see MF Global report above)
• Today’s almost official prices here / Yesterday’s actual LME official prices here or here (chart )
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price — available here
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