Leisure Fund — C-Class Shares Confidence Index

For some years, and sporadically since the crash of 2008, investment advisors and intermediaries have been predicting a revival of global economic conditions. Recently there emerged doubts questioning a strong recovery, and (in some markets and investments) suspicions of more bubbles developing. The Confidence Index was established in 2009 to provide a degree of forewarning of any radical changes in the trajectory of the markets.

The Confidence Index is based on the monitoring of electronic traffic amongst institutional investors, their trading intermediaries and service providers, and the ultimate holder of investments. The methodology includes the monitoring of electronic traffic of many sorts and the analysis of the contents of that traffic.

This market intelligence is designed to provide users with a real-time tool which gives not only a general market confidence index, but also both an indication of imminent market opportunities, as well as a reasonable advance warning of the collapse of bubbles.

In addition to investment market based electronic traffic, the methodology analyses the message content of traffic in various fields of activity, including: political, economic, regulatory, investment promotion agencies, central banks, ministries of finance and trade, tax avoidance mechanisms, et al, which would impact on investment planning or confidence.

Corporate electronic traffic is also analysed, especially that emanating from senior executives of the major corporations, and further as that traffic is disseminated amongst secondary level executives, and then regional and operational level executives.

The index is calculated using a weighted algorithm of high, medium, and low value electronic traffic and responses to situations and questions which provide scenarios of the likelihood of investment in specific investment markets and instruments over a period of 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours, 7 days, 14 days, 30 days, and so forth. Clearly as the time period extends the degree of certainty diminishes. Positive changes in index values indicate more profitable investment targets, and negative index values indicate investments to avoid.

The Confidence Index provides data on individual investment instruments in specific target countries; as well as the drivers in the movement of the index (upwards or downwards). A subsidiary ‘certainty index’ is attached to each Confidence Index data which shows the historic correlation between the Confidence Index and the actual evolution of the investment instruments and/or the target country.

The Confidence Index is a real-time application which is accessed on fixed computer systems or as a Mobile App. Users receive a continual ticker-tape output which reports the Confidence Index for various debt, equity, and derivative securities; and other assets (for example, property price movements for each city). The data feed can be filtered by the user to concentrate on individual investments or individual countries. The real-time feed is automatically aggregated by the application to provide time series analyses, graphics, and user defined forecasts.