Dont fight the Fed!.

I can remember the words way back at the beginning of my career in 1983, Dont fight the Fed.  In fact, I can remember my Money and Banking professor telling us this in 1981 during the depths of that recession.  It made sense while I was a wet behind the ears college student.  It made sense as to me as a green stockbroker just starting out but as the 80s progressed, some things just didnt make sense to me anymore.  I saw people who couldnt rub two nickels together all of a sudden moving into big new houses with brand new cars and $100,000++ boats covered up in their backyards during the winter.  I was thinking What the heck?

I figured out early on that debt was the source of everything when it came to the good life.  I watched the 91 recession get aborted and again in 96-97 which then turned into the internet bubble.  Then came the bust of the stock market and the 2001 recession which was also aborted by another reflation.  At this point (98-99), Gold was trading below $300 while the cost of production was around $335 per ounce, it just didnt make sense.  But still in the back of my mind I was thinking about this phrase Dont fight the Fed.  Value took over and my decision was to go all in and Fight the Fed!

Looking back, the choice was either buy Gold or short Treasury securities (bet on interest rates to go up).  Either choice was equally fighting the Fed, however, with shorting Treasuries you have already been taken out behind the woodshed and shot right between the eyes.  Buying Gold?  It worked, and quite well.  But here we are with interest rates (at ridiculously low levels) finally beginning to rise and some calling triple top on the bond market.  Should you now short the bond market?  In my opinion there is very little risk to this strategy but BUT, what is your upside?  Without leverage all you can win is 100% AND guess what?  You win Dollars!  This is like going to a carnival and playing one of their games.  Most people spend $10 and never win but you are excellent at the ring toss or whatever, you only spent $1 yet you win a $2 teddy bear.

Fighting the Fed by purchasing Gold is an entirely different game, here you spend $1 Dollar to play the game and you dont win some crummy teddy bear.  You dont even win ALL the teddy bears behind the counter.  No, you win the whole carnival!  I am not being overly dramatic here, I assure you.  When the system comes down, you could have MILLIONS in the bank and still be a complete loser.  Your bank could (will) fail, FDIC will pay ($250,000) and you will be in financial tatters because $250,000 will not even buy a wheelbarrow by the time this whole episode is over.

Dramatic on my part?  No, The Fed is now at this point THE biggest buyer of Treasury securities in the world.  Everyone else has stepped back either because they understand the game or because they dont have the cash to invest.  Yet, the game by definition HAS TO keep getting bigger and BIGGER.  If you dont or cant see the mechanics that the game is a Ponzi scheme, all you need to know is that the basic tenet of a Ponzi scheme is that it get bigger and bigger which is exactly what the Fed is doing in support of the Treasury departments unending hunger (now by necessity) to borrow more at an exponentially greater rate.

My point is this, you absolutely must for your own survival fight the Fed.  Yes, you can play along with their game and maybe (if you are good) win Dollars but at some point the game mathematically HAS TO END!  Oh and by the way, when the game does finally end?  You wont even be able to exchange your winnings for a simple teddy bear.  On the other hand you could win all the marbles and be a part (have a real and true financial vote) in the upcoming new monetary system.  If you are going to fight the Fed (which your financial survival depends on), do it right!