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Brace yourself – the gold outlook seems gloomy

Mar 13, 2015 KGC GLD GDX NEM ABX

The US dollar is on a multiyear high, putting downward pressure on gold. The dollar isnt expected to weaken, which implies that the gold outlook is gloomy.

Mar 13, 2015 AU AEM NEM GLD GDX

Many industry experts, including the World Gold Council, believe that 2014 was the peak year for gold mine production.

Mar 13, 2015 GG ABX NEM GLD GDX

India’s real interest rate has moved up rapidly in the last few months due to declining inflation.

Mar 13, 2015 AUY NEM GG GLD GDX

In January, Indian gold imports climbed 55%. This comes on the heels of easing import restrictions by the Reserve Bank of India.

Mar 13, 2015 AUY GDX GLD NEM GG

An increase in the Chinese real interest rate on savings motivates people to put their money in savings instead of investing in gold.

Mar 13, 2015 GG ABX NEM GLD GDX

All mined or imported gold in China can only sell through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. By tracking the SGE, investors can see Chinas short-term demand.

Mar 13, 2015 ABX NEM AUY GLD GDX

China is importing gold from Hong Kong. Net imports from Hong Kong to mainland China totaled 71.6 metric tons in 2014 compared to 58.8 tons in December.

Mar 13, 2015 SLW AUY NEM GDX GLD

There are 14 known gold ETF holdings. Global ETFs are selling physical gold to the tune of about 20 tons in one month ending March 9.

Mar 13, 2015 GG AUY NEM GLD GDX

Lower crude oil prices mean lower inflation. This should have a negative effect on gold since gold is usually considered a hedge against inflation.

Mar 13, 2015 NEM KGC AU GLD GDX

The gold price increase kept pace with the global money supply until recently. The relationship between the two appears to have broken.

Mar 13, 2015 AU GLD GDX GG KGC

The US budget deficit was $17.5 billion for January. The surplus for December was $1.9 billion. A year ago, the budget was in deficit $10.2 billion.

Mar 13, 2015 GG NEM ABX GLD GDX

As US public debt rises beyond a certain point, the country will have to increase taxes and cut spending in order to service the interest.

Mar 13, 2015 GG NEM ABX GLD GDX

The US trade deficit, excluding oil, hit a record high in January, while overseas economies, including the Eurozone and Japan, are weakening.

Mar 13, 2015 GG AEM NEM GLD GDX

For January, the Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% to 121.1 following December’s increase of 0.4%. This was the fifth month the index reported a rise.

Mar 13, 2015 AEM AUY GDX GLD GG

US labor market figures for the employment situation for February were either in line with or better than expectations.

Mar 13, 2015 UUP GDX NEM ABX GG

The US Dollar Index value increased from 95.46 on March 2 to 99.68 on March 11, a gain of 4.4%. This steep rise is the main reason gold has been falling.

Mar 13, 2015 NEM AUY ABX GLD GDX

The three-month US real interest rates have just turned slightly positive. The main reason is the falling US inflation.

Mar 13, 2015 GG NEM ABX GLD GDX

In 2014, inflation expectations were 2.8% to 3.3%. In January 2015, expectations dropped to 2.5%, the lowest since September 2010.

Mar 13, 2015 GLD GDX AEM NEM GG

The US Consumer Price Index reading for the month of January was -0.1%. This is the first negative US inflation reading since October 2009.