6 Gut checks before the stock market s opening bell Need to Know

Post on: 19 Август, 2015 No Comment

6 Gut checks before the stock market s opening bell Need to Know

By Shawn Langlois

Good morning.

Cyprus, we hardly knew you. After a panic-ridden plunge of two points on the Dow last week yes, two points!  a bailout deal has been reached  and stocks are busting out around the world. So thats it, huh?

All that noise out of Aphrodites birthplace, and the best the stock market could muster in acknowledgement is a brief pause, maybe even an eye roll, before getting right back on the bull path. Clearly, focus in the U.S. has been on the healing economy, not so much on the fate of a few Cypriot savers. In that spirit, two Fed guys are slated to offer up some meaty words later in the day.

If the European clustermess or perhaps the tepid U.S. earnings growth still has you unconvinced that a resumption of the rally is in the offing, take a harder look at the gold ($3,000?) and 10-year Treasury hedges laid out below.

Hopefully, BlackBerry longs have their hedges in place.

The economy: New York Fed President William Dudley and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will make public addresses today. Dudley, who has been mostly quiet in recent months, will speak to the Economic Club of New York at 12:30 p.m. Hes a former Goldman guy with an influential view on economic trends.  Then Bernanke takes to the podium down the street at the London School of Economics. Hell be joined by heavyweights Mervyn King, Olivier Blanchard, Axel Weber and Larry Summers. Read: Dudley takes the mic while Bernanke talks about crisis lessons .

The buzz: The Dell /quotes/zigman/27952 /quotes/nls/dell DELL  saga keeps offering up fresh headlines, the latest came over the weekend when word broke that Blackstone and Carl Icahn made offers to buy the computer maker ahead of Saturdays deadline to file bids. This could present a tough hurdle to Michael Dells plans to take the firm he founded private. The stock is up almost 2% premarket. Read about why Michael Dell could lose his job .

While Dell is set for a move higher, BlackBerry /quotes/zigman/18534 /quotes/nls/bbry BBRY is taking a huge hit. The stock is  off another 6% before the open, extending Fridays big decline after the new Z10 didnt exactly garner the kind of fireworks investors may have been banking on. Word of a Goldman downgrade isnt helping matters.

The chart of the day:  It may be a horrible standalone investment and traders may call it the widow-maker, but the 10-year Treasury is hard to beat as an effective hedging tool for those looking to pull back on some risk in the current climate, according to Walter Kurtz of the Sober Look blog .

Whats particularly interesting about long-dated Treasurys as a hedge is that the anti-correlation increases during periods of stress in the financial markets, he wrote. This chart shows how the hedge was the strongest during the Italy-induced fears of 2011, then again the next year when Spain took the spotlight. Very few hedging instruments have the optionality that kicks in at the time when one really needs it, Kurtz wrote.

The call of the day: Gold is on its way to $3,000 an ounce by 2014, says Wall Street Examiners Lee Adler.  He backs up his forecast with technicals, such as the three-year triangular moving average, which hasnt taken its current shape since 2008, when gold was about to take off on a three-year run of more than 1,100 points.  Also of note, producers of the precious metal are short they always are because they need to hedge but not as short as they usually are and their positions are signaling a bottom. Read more on why gold is poised for a big push .

Random reads:  Looking back at Warren Buffetts latest state of Berkshire Hathaway /quotes/zigman/219651 /quotes/nls/brk.a BRK.A letter. Damn it. Hes also a better writer than I am .

Buffett might want to pay more taxes, but Bill Maher doesnt. And this is why he says the liberal camp might lose him .

In another era, this middle-aged bald bloke would have donned his top hat and headed down to Covent Garden. Today, its Starbucks and a laptop. Heres how Twitter changes research. from SocGen currency strategist Kit Juckes.

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5 gut checks before the stock markets opening bell Next

6 gut checks before the stock markets opening bell


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