Stocks Down: Market Volatility Continues; Rate Hike In June Seen; February Jobs Increase 295k; Unemployment Rate 5.5%

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Asian stock markets posted mixed results Tuesday while European markets, several hours ahead of U.S. markets, were showing negative sessions, as traders and investors get concerned over China’s price hike and economic slowdown.

U.S. stocks were set to open lower amid pressure from global markets. Futures pointed to a modest decline at the start of business Tuesday.

Barometer models were set to upgrade the BLI, the short-term forecast, to positive Tuesday but markets correcting halted the model action. Data does suggest that the inching-along higher for U.S. stocks is still intact.

After being significantly lower at the start of trade Tuesday, equities crawl back, almost making it back to unchanged, but fell short. The major indexes recoup most of the sessions early loss, to end just short off breakeven.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Stock rise Monday on the heals of Apple’s dividend and repurchase announcement.

Traders and investors send stocks higher Monday as Wall Street gets ready for earnings season with preannouncements just ahead.

Tech shares (NASDAQ) ramp the market up with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ modestly higher, while the Dow index ended slightly higher, posting flat results on the session.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Stocks start out in positive mode, turn mixed in the midmorning session. Economic data had little effect over the strategy of the market makers as stocks continue to crawl and inch higher with little pullbacks.

Jobless new claims —chart— continue to show an improving jobs market with first time claims of 351,000 last week, that’s down 14,000 from the previous week.

Producer prices increased nearly 1/2 percent in February while the core index was up 0.2 percent. Core price is the CPI less volatile food and energy.

Stocks in the U.S. keep on moving higher. There is no stopping this market. This could be the calm before the storm. Models continue, for now, to show a neutral short-term forecast and a caution for the long-term.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

U.S. stocks get off to a spiffy start Tuesday as the global community awaits the Fed FOMC monetary policy announcement later this afternoon.

Stocks steady climb higher Tuesday, ramp-up going into the close. Fed FOMC keeps funds target rate unchanged, as expected, says to keep rates accommodative.

Fed releases stress test of banks that show some failures; initial reaction, after hours, was quick and harsh but as the details emerge traders are getting details of who failed and who passed and the quick to announce bank buybacks.

Today’s rally brought to you by banks that could be the reason for a pullback tomorrow if traders and investors are concerned.

The Fed announced results of the latest bank stress tests which showed that the majority of the largest U.S. bank holding companies (banks) would continue to meet expectations for capital adequacy despite large simulated losses in an adverse hypothetical economic scenario.

The Federal Reserve evaluates the capital planning processes and capital adequacy of the largest bank holding companies. The exercise includes a supervisory stress test to evaluate whether banks would have sufficient capital in times of severe economic and financial stress.

The hypothetical economic scenario included peak unemployment rate of 13 percent; a 50 percent drop in equity prices; a 21 percent decline in housing prices. Losses at the 19 banks were estimated to total $534 billion during the hypothetical stress test.

How all this plays out Wednesday is a guess at this point. Although Asian markets are not having a problem driving stocks up midday Wednesday, local.

European market, hours away from opening, will give a better idea of how the U.S. will handle the news in the pre market.

Forecasts remain caution for the long-term and neutral for the BLI short-term.

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Monday, March 12, 2012

U.S. stock market got off to a slow flat start Monday as traders and investors decide strategy; waiting on the Fed meeting is the next big thing.

Asia Pacific stocks ended mixed while the European markets traded mixed most of the session, ending mostly positive as European’s await the Fed meeting.

Steady climb higher for the Dow, S&P 500 lagging somewhat, with the NASDAQ well in negative territory going into the close Monday.

The Dow Jones industrials close with a slight gain Monday while the tech heavy NASDAQ ended slightly lower; meanwhile, the S&P 500 ends virtually unchanged.

Very slow grind higher for stocks. The Fed FOMC meeting tomorrow could recharge the market. A one day meeting by the FOMC is expected to leave rates unchanged and expand on bank stress test.

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Friday, March 9, 2012

Like clockwork, stocks grind higher Friday, nearly all daylong, on Greece deal and payroll report that show a continuation of the U.S. economic recovery.

The nonfarm payroll jobs report, released this morning, sent stock futures higher which translated into a ramp-up for stocks, early on in the session.

227,000 new jobs were added to the economy while the unemployment rate held steady at 8.3 percent.

Stocks sideways traded for most of the session until the ISDA triggered a credit event on Greece debt.

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) today resolved that a Greek credit event had occurred. The EMEA committee stated that an auction on March 19, 2012 would be held with respect to the outstanding CDS transaction.

Asia Pacific markets could react negatively Monday morning, Sunday evening in the U.S. while it is too early to tell how the European markets will trend with respect to the news.

The U.S. acted somewhat muted to the news but futures and the morning trading Monday will be influenced by how Europe performs.

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Thursday, March 8, 2012

U.S. futures pointed to the continuation of the global rally on Greece compliance with its debtors.

It all started Wednesday after the Dow had dropped 200 plus points on Tuesday. The U.S. ramped-up after Europe markets closed Wednesday, which was carried over to the Asian markets, and then onto European markets on Thursday.

It appears from reports that the Greece debt crisis is nearing closure Thursday with a vast majority of bond holders accepting the Eurozone/ ECB orchestrated deal. Stocks around the globe rally.

Tomorrows payroll jobs report could be key in continuing the rally or pulling back, like some market analysts believe. A strong jobs creation report could be the catalyst for the rally. The jobless new claims report and ADP data indicate new created jobs of something north of 200,000; unemployment rate off possibly 8.2 percent.

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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Stocks rallied Wednesday, the day after the Dow dropped 200 points, as Greece again gets a positive spotlight with it nearing agreement with its debtors.

Stocks recover some of yesterdays losses with the Dow taking back 78 of the 200 plus points, S&P 500 up 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ up 0.9 percent.