Posted by: : Paul Ebeling Posted on: September 4, 2013

The gridlock at the UN Security Council between the US and Russia is dragging on, due to competing interests in Syria.

The Russia/Syria Axis is based on strong political and economic relationship cultivated since the late 1950s.

The bond has a strong cultural element: many Syrians go to Russia to study, Russians go to Syria as Holidaymakers, advisors or investors. Over the years, Russia played an essential role in restructuring the Syrian economy, and wrote off roughly 70% of Syrias $13.4-B debt in Y 2005.

Reliable numbers are hard to come by, but The Moscow Times estimated Russian investments in Syria at $19.4-B in Y 2009, covering infrastructure, energy and tourism. But with outstanding projects ranging from a nuclear power plant to Oil and Gas exploration, the number today is considerably higher.

Russias trade with Syria is insubstantial.

According to Daniel Treisman, professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, Russian exports to Syria amounted to$1.93-B in Y 2011, or just 0.4% of Russias total exports. That is  less than its trade with Tunisia and Estonia.

What stands out is that Russia-Syria trade is concentrated in the defense and energy industries.

The vast majority of Russian exports to Syria are armaments, which makes Syria more important as an export destination for the Russian defense industry.

Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicated that between Ys 2005 and 2010, Syria accounted for just over 1% of Russias arms exports. Between Ys 2011-12, analyst reported the number increased to 4%.

Russias interest in Syria is geo-strategic as well as economic.

It hinges on the Mediterranean port of Tartus,which is often used to save the Russian Navy the long voyage across the Black Sea. In September 2008, work started on converting the facility to a full naval base.

Russia wishes to preserve its naval base in Tartus, but it will have to adjust to the outcome of the civil war, whatever that turns out to be. And although Tartus is be significant militarily now, it represents a last vestige of Russian influence in the region. It is of symbolic importance. It marks Syria as one of the few countries in the region with which Russia continues to enjoy warm relations.

The US has  withdrawn from Syria, leaving the bi-lateral relationship shredded.

In a research note late Monday, the International Crisis Group suggested diplomatic efforts might prove more successful. It advised developing a realistic compromise political offer and reaching out to both Russia and Iran, rather than investing in a prolonged conflicted that has a seemingly bottomless capacity to escalate.

A Russian retreat from its anti-interventionist stance on Syria appears as unlikely now,  as one by its US counterpart, further clouding prospects for any political resolution.

Russia can, and will, support Assad,  as long as Assad is the legitimate ruler of Syria, and as long as the diplomatic price remains relatively low.  Stay tuned