Bullion Index report gold starts the new trading week at a 3 month low after a strong reaction to data out of the U.S. on Friday. News of better than expected jobs data in the U.S. saw gold shed 3% in the session as investors saw the improving employment outlook in the U.S. as a signal that the Fed will move on rates sooner rather than later.

Following on from a busy week last week from an economic data standpoint, this week sees a bit of a lull in key data as traders await the Federal Reserve meeting next week (17-18 March).

The big event of the week will be happening later today when the ECB kicking off its massive QE/ money printing program. Gold has been tracking the ECB balance sheet up and down in recent times so with the ECB today effectively printing more money will we see gold track back higher. At the moment gold is being driving by both the ECB and the Federal Reserve but the battle for gold is which way will it break especially now we are about to see an even more significant divergence in policies between the ECB and the Fed.

Other major events and data flows this week include, Greece’s Finance Minster presenting 6 reform proposals to Eurogroup members on Monday. On Tuesday the UK Manufacturing Productions numbers are out, this will give traders an indication as to the health of the UK economy, it has been improving fast so we will see if it is still on track. On Thursday  we see the U.S. Retail Sales data, if sales come in above expectation then we may see a rally in the US dollar an in turn a dip in the price of gold. If however it comes in below forecast then we may see gold bounce higher. The forecast is for retail sales in February to be +0.5%.

We expect to see investors adding to long gold trades at the current market levels.

Capital Trust Markets reports the recent price action in the GBPCHF pair suggests that it has more upside in the near term as buyers are here to stay.

Technical Analysis

The GBPCHF pair recently climbed towards the 1.4760 resistance area where the British pound sellers defended the upside. However, there is a major bullish trend line on the 4 hour chart of the GBPCHF pair, which might act as a catalyst in the near term if the pair moves lower from the current levels. The most important point is the fact that the 50 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart is also around the highlighted trend line. In short, there is a major support around the 1.4640 area where the British pound buyers might appear in the near term. The 4H RSI is above the 50 level, which is one more bullish sign moving ahead.

If the GBPCHF pair moves higher from the current levels, then the last high of 1.4760 level where buyers might continue to struggle in the near term. A break above the same might call for more gains.

The next area of interest can be seen around the 1.4800 area.

Later during the London session, the Swiss Gross Domestic Product will be released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO. The forecast is slated for an increase of 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to the last gain of 1.9%.

One might consider buying dips around the highlighted trend line in the GBPCHF pair.

Source: Capital Trust Markets

SEB is recommending to clients to buy USD/CAD on dips. They report the Loonie is vulnerable to additional Bank of Canada (BOC) rate cuts and continued weak oil prices in H1 2015. We expect unchanged rates at tomorrows central bank meeting. We would look to buy on a dip in USD/CAD. An April rate reduction looks increasingly likely. We forecast USD/CAD at 1.30 in Q2 2015.

Buy USD/CAD  on dips below 1.24 as BOC is likely to remain on hold this week.

Source: SEB

This entry was posted in Forex Trading and tagged BoC. Buy FX. cad. forex. usd on March 4, 2015 by Admin.

SwissQuote report that although the recent rise in the value of the greenback has been impressive, valuation are far from overvalued. Indeed, looking at some fundamental measures like PPP, long-term valuations do not suggest any

This entry was posted in Forex Trading and tagged forex. trading. us dollar. us dollar index on January 30, 2015 by Admin.

SwissQuote report the EUR/CHF’s spike above 1.05 at Swiss open fueled speculations that the SNB might be behind the move. The money markets show limited reaction, we see no particular stress on euroswiss interest rate futures. As EUR/CHF tops, real money names and business owners will increasingly be tempted to sell EUR verse CHF on futures and derivatives markets to set FX hedges vis-à-vis the risky EUR. Therefore we expect choppy upside at 1.05/1.10 area.

The impact of EUR/CHF debasing is heavily felt in Swiss everyday life. The grocery shops, supermarkets, furniture, clothing shops give sensibly high discounts in order to prevent clients from buying across borders. This being said, the labor market is now under important contraction pressures. In the canton of Geneva, the negotiations for 50% unemployment are already on the wire. We expect significant price adjustment in the real market over the months ahead, which in turn should cool-off buying pressure in franc.

This entry was posted in Analysis and tagged euro. forex. snb. swiss franc. trading on January 30, 2015 by Admin.

Capital Trust Markets reports the Aussie dollar has shown a lot of resiliency against most major currencies recently, raising the case of more upside in pairs like AUDUSD and AUDJPY.

Technical Analysis

There are a couple of important trend line formed on the 4 hour chart of the AUDJPY pair, which are likely to act as a support for the pair moving ahead. The pair recently climbed towards 102.80 area where it found sellers, and is currently trading lower. There is a chance that the pair might spike lower towards the first bullish trend line, which is also sitting around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg from the 98.05 low to 102.83 high. Moreover, there is one more bullish trend line, connecting lows sitting just below the first trend line. So, there is a lot of support around the 101.80-60 area where buyers are likely to take a stand. If the pair continues to trade higher from the current or lower levels, then initial hurdle is around the last swing high of 102.83, followed by the all-important 103.00 area.

On the other hand, if the AUDJPY pair breaks the highlighted support zone, then it is likely to head towards the 100 simple moving average (SMA) – 4H, which is around the 50% fib retracement level.

Moving Ahead

There is no major release in Australia in the coming sessions, but in Japan the BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes will be released during the next Asian session. We need to see how the Yen pairs react after the release. Overall, buying dips is a good idea in AUDJPY moving ahead.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

(Source: SwissQuote)

This entry was posted in Forex Trading and tagged forex. fx. nz dollar. nzd. usd on November 23, 2014 by Admin.

As the markets open in the US on Friday morning, we will get the latest Canadian inflation data reported out of the nation.

Capital Trust Markets reports the Canadian dollar gained strength during today’s session on the back of better-than-expected wholesale sales data, and markets will be looking for strong inflation figures to reinforce the data and compound the bullish momentum. With this in mind, what’s expected and how can we set up to profit from a release either side of the consensus forecast? Here is what you need to know.

First, what did the wholesale sales data tell us about the Canadian economy? The data – reported at 1.8% growth versus a forecast of 0.7% – comes amid a spate of strong releases this month. Manufacturing sales beat expectations of 2.1% at the end of last week, while unemployment throughout October dipped to 6.5% with employment rising 43.1 K, and building permits reported at the beginning of the month expanding by 12.7% month over month during September. This being said, there are some concerns about deceleration in the house price growth over the last few months, and this is likely to force the bank of Canada to hold interest rates at their current lows so as to avoid jeopardizing any sustainable growth over the coming quarters. With this in mind, what of levels to keep an eye on in the USDCAD? Take a look at the chart below.

As the chart shows, we have seen a certain amount of consolidation in the pair over the past few weeks. However, we could see this consolidation come to an end and the US dollar resume its upside momentum versus its Canadian counterpart, as we approach a combination of key level and 200 SMA support. 1.1266 and 1.1464 are the levels to keep an eye on. Consensus forecasts the upcoming core CPI data (MoM) – the likely headliner – at 0.2% for October. With this in mind, look for anything below to reinforce aforementioned support and validate 1.1464 medium-term to the upside.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

Capital Trust Markets reports recent market sentiment suggests that the AUDUSD pair might head lower in the near term as the US dollar might gain traction moving ahead.

Technical Analysis

There was a monster trend line on the 4 hour chart of the AUDUSD pair, which was breached earlier during the Asian session. The most important point to note from the charts is the fact that the pair is now trading below all three key simple moving averages (100, 200 and 50). This might add pressure on the Aussie dollar buyers. Currently, the pair is trading around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8540 low to 0.8795 high. So, there is a chance of a correction in the near term towards the broken support area which might act as a resistance now. Immediate resistance is around the 50 SMA, followed by the 100 SMA. The 4H RSI is well below the 50 level, which could encourage the Aussie sellers to take the pair lower moving ahead.

On the downside, initial support can be seen around the 0.8600 area. A break and close below the mentioned area might call for a move towards the 0.8550 level.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

This entry was posted in Forex Trading and tagged aud. forex. fx. trading. usd on November 19, 2014 by Admin.

Shortly after the markets close in the US on Monday evening, the latest monetary policy meeting minutes will be reported out of Australia.

Capital Trust Markets reports the meetings come at a time when markets are looking at the Australian property sector very closely in order to gain insight into whether the house prices and construction activity will continue to expand into 2015, or whether the current deceleration of those aforementioned will lead to a halting and eventual decline. This scrutiny surrounding the Australian economy means that any bias inferred by the monetary policy meeting minutes as far as possible interest rate policy is concerned could impact the value of the Australian dollar versus its major counterparts during the Asian session. With this in mind, what of the minutes likely to show and what are the levels to keep an eye on as we head into the release? Let’s take a look.

First, let’s look at the minutes. The likely outcome of the release will be that Australia’s monetary policy committee will hold interest rates low for the foreseeable future. The property market is expanding, but inflation remains low and wages – and in turn – retail activity are showing very little movement month on month. Through keeping interest rates at lows as we head into the end of the year and throughout the beginning of 2015, the reserve bank of Australia (RBA) hopes it will be able to stimulate Australian households into engaging in consumer activity. So what are the levels to keep an eye on as we head into the release? Take a look at the chart below.

Action earlier today saw the AUD USD into the open of the Asian session, but at the open of the European morning session the pair dipped back below its 200 SMA (H4) to validate 0.8595 and 0.8761 as in term support and resistance respectively. These are the levels to keep an eye on. If we get a hawkish tone to the meeting minutes – unlikely – we could see a break back above the 200 SMA and the turning of the overall trend to the upside. Such a situation would validate 0.8910 longer-term. However, if we get a dovish tone the bearish momentum is likely to continue – a situation in which 0.8595 would serve as an initial downside target.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

This entry was posted in Forex Trading and tagged aud. forex. fx. usd on November 17, 2014 by Admin.

BNP Paribas recommend to client to take a short EURAUD trade. They report we see opportunity to short EUR vs high yielders amid a positive risk-taking environment. AUD is resilient to falling commodity prices and our positioning

We initiate a short EURAUD trade recommendation at 1.4260 targeting 1.3805 with a stop loss at 1.4490.

We expect EURAUD to trade lower during periods of improving risk appetite. While the Fed’s QE3 progamme has now officially come to a close, we expect increasingly aggressive easing programmes from the ECB and BoJ to provide

offsetting support for markets. Combined monetary base growth for the major central banks is likely to continue through 2015. We continue to favour long positions in risk-sensitive currencies funded in EUR and JPY and are now initiating a short EURAUD trade recommendation at 1.4260 targeting 1.3805 with a stop loss at 1.4490.