USD JPY Forecast

Post on: 21 Июль, 2015 No Comment

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USD/JPY gained about 100 points last week, as the pair closed at 120.84. This marked the first time the pair has closed above the 120 line in 2015. There are 9 events this week, highlighted by Final GDP. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

There were no major Japanese events last week, and the dollar posted strong gains late in the week as the US gained 295 thousand jobs in February. beating expectations.

Updates:

Mar 13, 15:00: US consumer confidence slides to 91.2 but the dollar rallies on. Lower gasoline prices dont cut it for US consumers. Consumer confidence fell short of predictions with a drop to 91.2 points.
Mar 13, 10:49: QE: Who got it right, Krugman or the Gold bugs? Market Movers #41. This episode of Market movers is dedicated to Quantitative Easing (QE). This happens as the QE baton is passed from.
Mar 13, 10:48: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Pivot Points, Ta Mar. 13 2015. EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.0896 R2 1.0789 R1 1.0706 Pivot 1.06 S1 1.0517 S2 1.041 S3 1.0327 EURUSD managed.
Mar 12, 13:30: US retail sales disappoint again USD slides a bit. US retail sales fell 0.6% in February, falling short of expectations for a rise. Excluding autos it is 0.1% and.
Mar 12, 10:41: Fed worries about Dollars strength. We are entering the European session with the dollar under pressure, but that comes after what has been a relentless.
Mar 12, 7:08: The Last Leg Of USD Strength Set To Start Next Week CIBC. The US dollar enjoyed yet another strong surge, sweeping also currencies that had showed resilience beforehand. Is it over? Not so.
Mar 11, 9:25: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA Mar. 11 2015. EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.0986 R2 1.0920 R1 1.0799 Pivot 1.0733 S1 1.0612 S2 1.0546 S3 1.0425 EURUSD continues.
Mar 10, 19:38: EURJPY: Bear Risk Builds Up On The 130.14 Level. EURJPY- With the cross seen reversing its Monday losses on Tuesday, a retake of its key support standing at the.
Mar 10, 15:02: US JOLTs 4.998M just below predictions. Job openings stood on 4.998 million in January, just under 5 million and just below 5.05 million predicted. The previous.
Mar 10, 14:34: Dollar Rally Resurgence. After yesterday’s consolidation, the underlying upward trend in the greenback has reasserted itself, with the DXY surging to a fresh.
Mar 10, 13:44: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD Technical analysis, pivot points Mar. 10 2015. EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.0981 R2 1.0943 R1 1.0897 Pivot 1.0859 S1 1.0813 S2 1.0776 S3 1.073 EURUSD fell.
Mar 10, 9:20: Eurozone QE starts. After the drama of Friday, we saw a relatively subdued start to the week in FX markets. The two main.
Mar 9, 13:55: How Much Of A USD Strength Into Upcoming FOMC? Goldman. After another strong jobs report from the US expectations have risen for a removal of forward guidance: no more patience from.

Mar 9, 13:32: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA Mar. 9 2015. EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.116 R2 1.1096 R1 1.097 Pivot 1.0904 S1 1.0778 S2 1.0712 S3 1.0586 EURUSD declined.
Mar 9, 13:28: USD/JPY: Trading the JOLTS Job Openings. JOLTS Job Openings measures the number of employment openings each month, excluding the farm industry. A reading which is higher than the.
Mar 9, 8:22: EUR/JPY Corrects Post Japanese GDP. The Euro traded lower recently against the Japanese yen and tested the 130.60 support area where it found buyers. There.

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Current Account is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase Japanese yen to buy Japanese goods and services. The indicator improved to 0.98 trillion yen in December, ahead of the forecast of 0.95 trillion. The upward trend is expected to continue, with the January report expected at 1.16 trillion yen.
Final GDP. Sunday, 23:50. Final GDP is the major event of the week and can have a significant impact on the movement of USD/JPY. Preliminary GDP, which came out in February, posted a gain of 0.6%, shy of the forecast of 0.9%. Little change is expected in Final GDP, with the estimate standing at 0.5%.
Economy Watchers Sentiment: Monday, 5:00. This minor event continues to post readings below the 50-point line, indicative of ongoing pessimism among surveyed workers. The indicator came in at 45.6 points in January and is expected to improve to 46.7 points in February.
M2 Money Stock: Monday, 23:50. The indicator dipped to 3.4% in January, short of the forecast of 3.6%. Little change is expected in the upcoming report.
Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Tuesday, 6:00. This minor indicator has been softening, and dropped to 20.4% in January.
Core Machinery Orders: Tuesday, 23:50. Core Machinery Orders is an important gauge of the strength of the manufacturing sector. The indicator tends to post sharp swings, resulting in readings that are well off the estimates. This was the case in December report, as the indicator jumped 8.3%, crushing the estimate of 2.4%. The markets are expecting a sharp downturn in the January release, with a forecast of -3.9%. Will the indicator repeat and again beat the estimate?
BSI Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 23:50. This index is released quarterly, magnifying the impact of each reading. The indicator dipped to 8.1 points in Q3, compared to 12.7 in the Q3 release. The downward trend is expected to continue, with the estimate standing at 5.7 points.
Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 5:00. Consumer Confidence remains weak, as the indicator has been below the 40-point level for the past five readings. The January reading came in at 39.1 points, within expectations. The forecast for the February report is 39.9 points.
Revised Industrial Production: Friday, 4:30. The indicator follows Preliminary Industrial Production, which posted an excellent gain of 4.0%, beating the estimate of 2.9%. The estimate for Revised Industrial Production stands at 4.0%.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY started the week at 119.83. The pair dropped to a low of 119.38. The pair then reversed directions, climbing to a high of 121.28, as resistance held firm at 121.39 (discussed last week ). USD/JPY closed the week at 120.84.

Live chart of USD/JPY:

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 125.72, which has last breached in December 2002.

124.16 marked the start of a yen rally in June 2007, which saw USD/JPY drop to the 96 level.

122.19 remains a strong resistance line which has held firm since July 2007.

121.39 held firm as the dollar pushed higher late in the week. It is currently a weak resistance line.

119.88 is an immediate support level.

117.94 has strengthened as the pair moved higher this week.

116.82 is providing strong support and has remained intact since mid-January.

116.02 is the next support level.

114.65 is the final support level for now. This line has remained intact since December 2007, when the yen posted a strong rally which saw USD/JPY drop below the 96 line.

I am bullish on USD/JPY

The dollar finds itself on a lofty perch above the 120 line, but it has had difficulty maintaining this level. Still, US economy is in good shape and the dollar is benefitting from increased speculation about a mid-year rate hike.

In the fresh podcast, we talk about the US economy, the Australian and Canadian rate decisions, a potential easing in Japan, the widening gap within oil prices and an update on forex brokers after the SNBomb