The Fed s discount rate hike

Post on: 16 Март, 2015 No Comment

The Fed s discount rate hike

The Federal Reserve Board announced on Thursday that it is raising the interest rate at which banks borrow from the Feds discount window to 0.75%, a 25-basis-point increase, and intends to return discount lending primarily to the traditional overnight loans.

The rate hike cycle begins, declared 24/7 Wall St. and

Treasuries fell, pushing yields to the highest levels in at least five weeks, amid concern the Federal Reserves increase in the discount rate signaled policy makers are moving closer to lifting benchmark borrowing costs.

But I dont believe thats what the discount rate hike means at all.

The Fed sometimes has used discount rate changes as a signal of its intentions for interest rates more broadly. But the Fed press release accompanying the move stated flatly thats not the case this time:

The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy.

The same message was emphatically repeated in statements by Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley. Maybe you have a theory that the way the Fed communicates that it intends to raise rates is by denying that it intends to raise rates. If so, I cant help you.

The Fed described its true intentions in the minutes of the Jan 26-27 FOMC meeting :

Staff briefed the Committee on current usage of the discount window and other liquidity facilities and suggested additional steps policymakers could take to normalize the Federal Reserves liquidity provision. These steps included continuing to scale back amounts offered through the Term Auction Facility (TAF); returning to the pre-crisis standard of one-day maturity for primary credit loans to all but the smallest depository institutions; and increasing, initially to 50 basis points from 25 basis points, the spread between the primary credit rate and the upper end of the Committees target range for the federal funds rate

All of which the Fed has now implemented. The FOMC minutes also indicated that the purpose of a discount rate hike would be

discouraging depository institutions from relying on the discount window as a routine source of funds when other funding is generally available. Participants generally agreed that such steps to return the Federal Reserves liquidity provision to a normal footing would be technical adjustments to reflect the notable diminution of the market strains that had made the creation of new liquidity facilities and expansion of existing facilities necessary and emphasized that such steps would not indicate a change in the Committees assessment of the appropriate stance of monetary policy or the proper time to begin moving to a less accommodative policy stance.

The Fed does not want to be lending to financial institutions on a permanent basis, and for this reason has been winding down the TAF and other lending facilities.

Subset of Federal Reserve assets, in billions of dollars, seasonally unadjusted, from Jan 1, 2007 to February 10, 2010. Wednesday values, from Federal Reserve H41 release .

swaps: central bank liquidity swaps;

MMIFL: net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through

the Money Market Investor Funding Facility;

CPLF: net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Commercial Paper Funding Facility;

TALF: loans extended through Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility plus net portfolio holdings of TALF LLC ;

ABCP: loans extended to Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility;

PDCF: loans extended to primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit;

discount: sum of primary credit, secondary credit, and seasonal credit;

TAC: term auction credit;

RP: repurchase agreements;

As I noted last week. despite phasing out various facilities, the Fed intends to allow its massive MBS holdings an alternative form of long-term lending by the Fed to decline only gradually. Choosing to sell off some of these would be an important signal that the Feds assessment of the economy and near-term plans have changed.


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