Supply Shock Which ETFs You Should Buy And Sell
Post on: 16 Март, 2015 No Comment
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The supply shock erupting from the North American shale oil boom will have profound effects for global energy markets, says the International Energy Agency.
In its Medium-Term Oil Market Report released Tuesday, the IEA said the production onslaught will have impact on the oil market over the next five years as much as swelling Chinese demand did over the past 15 years. What’s more, it will force companies to change how they transport, store and refine oil in addition to their investment strategies.
The IEA’s announcement coincided with a rally in oil and gas exploration and production ETFs as investors bet the shale boom will certainly be a boon for some ETFs and a bust for others.
The shale oil boom is seen breathing new life into the domestic oil industry. Thinkstock Photo View Enlarged Image
Essentially the report corroborated what has been postulated in the market for the past year, Stephen Schork, founder of The Schork Report, specializing in energy markets.
Key Facts From The Report
The report stated:
1. North American oil supply is projected to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day from 2012 to 2018, accounting for more than half of the (non-OPEC) increase.
2. Emerging markets are projected to overtake developed countries in oil product consumption by the second quarter of this year.
3. Developing countries, which accounted for 49% of global demand in 2012, will account for more than 54% by 2018.
4. The average cost of oil imports will fall from $109 a barrel in 2013 to $93 a barrel by 2018.
5. Global demand will rise from 89.78 million barrels a day in 2012 to 96.68 million barrels by 2018, up nearly 8%, assuming global economic growth of 3% to 4.5% annually.
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6. Non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil supplies are seen rising from 59.66 million barrels a day in 2012 to 66.30 million barrels by 2018, an 11% increase.
Here’s a look at potential winners and losers in the stock market .
Major Oil Services Firms
The big winners of the shale boom will be major oil services and independent service operators, or ISOs, such as Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB ), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL ) and Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI ), which have billion-dollar research and development budgets, says John Graves, author of Fracking, America’s Alternative Energy Revolution and an asset manager based in Ventura, Calif.
All three companies are heavily overweighted in iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil Equipment Index (ARCA:IEZ ), Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (ARCA:OIH ), which climbed 0.54% and 0.34%, respectively Tuesday.
Graves is also bullish on Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM ), BP (NYSE:BP ), Chevron (NYSE:CVX ) and Statoil (NYSE:STO ), which he believes have the staying power to outlast regulatory or governmental interference.