What Cuba For (CCL UAL AXP MA)

Post on: 22 Август, 2015 No Comment

President Barack Obama announced the restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba in December after 54 years of isolation. Ties with the island-nation were severed in January of 1961, one year after the first trade embargo was imposed by President Dwight D. Eisenhower.

The historic announcement with Cuban President Raúl Castro was established amid a prisoner exchange brokering the release of dissidents detained on espionage charges. Obama has agreed to release three Cuban agents held in the U.S. for the last 15 years in exchange for Rolando Sarraff Trujillo, a Cuban national who operated as an intelligence agent for U.S. Cuba also agreed to release 53 political prisoners.

The discussions prompted the immediate release of Alan P. Gross, an American government aid contractor held for five years in Havana. Gross was sentenced to 15 years by the Cuban government on espionage charges but was released on humanitarian grounds.

As part of the diplomatic normalization process, the U.S. will reinstate its embassy in Havana. High-level exchanges between the two governments have already begun. The U.S. will address matters of Cuban domestic policy such as improvements in human rights conditions and advancing democratic reforms. (For more, see: How To Invest In Cuba .)

Why Now?

Cuba is motivated to thaw relations with the U.S. as instability in Venezuela mounts and a looming credit default threatens the Venezuelan economy. Venezuela serves as one of Cuba’s main economic supports through its subsidized oil supplies. To preserve its economic integrity, Cuba is setting its sights on outside economies.

The decades-long American policy of isolationism has failed both economically and politically. Normalization of relations – and an eventual lifting of the embargo – will allow the U.S. to enter a nearby, untapped market of 11 million people, and U.S. travel, agriculture, and financial services sectors are looking to gain. (For more, see: The Economic Impact of Better US-Cuba Relations .)

Travel

Travel restrictions have kept American tourists out of Cuba for decades. The new White House policy will relax travel constraints, granting access to a wide range of travelers in the process. The reopening of America’s embassy in Havana will also facilitate travel for Americans seeking to travel to Cuba.

Included among the authorized types of travel are visits to family, business trips, and visits for educational or religious purposes. However, despite a dozen authroized travel types. tourism is still banned.

The U.S. travel industry sees a breadth of business possibilities for the sector as a number of American tourists inevitably take advantage of this new travel destination.

Carnival (CCL ), the U.S. cruise liner, has already showed interest in bringing tourists to Cuba’s nearby ports. Among a handful of other airlines, United Airlines (UAL ) has announced plans to serve direct flights to Cuba once kinks in government regulations are sorted out. Additional opportunities could exist for American hotels as Cuba currently houses a dearth of tourist accommodations.

Agriculture

The policy shift could prove lucrative for American food companies who will no longer face burdensome restrictions on exports. Though exempted from the trade embargo, agriculture companies have encountered regulatory barriers and have been required to finance through third parties.

Cuba is the largest importer of wheat in the Caribbean and has not imported the grain from the U.S. since 2011. The freer trade guidelines could potentially raise the U.S. share of wheat imports from zero to 90%, creating a $150 million business in the process. There is also greater room in the marketplace for soy products and corn, the latter of which hasn’t been traded since 2008 .

The uptick in American goods will also benefit Cuba by boosting Cuban food security. The country currently imports about 80% of its food requirements.

Financial Services

American banks will finally be able to conduct business in Cuba for the first time since the trade embargo barred U.S. banks from doing business there. American financial institutions will now also be able to open correspondent accounts at Cuban financial institutions to process direct transactions, eliminating the need to search for a banking intermediary in Cuba to sell products or process trade.

Individuals will also feel the effects of relaxed financial restrictions. Remittance levels to Cuban nationals will be raised. allowing Americans to send more money to Cuba. Remittances pertaining to humanitarian projects and the promotion of private businesses will be authorized without limitation.

Americans traveling in Cuba will no longer be limited to cash transactions and will be able to use their credit and debit cards on the island. American Express (AXP ) is the latest American credit card issuer to announce its plans to conduct business in Cuba. MasterCard (MA ) also recently announced it would stop blocking Cuban transactions.

The Bottom Line

Congressional approval is needed to lift the current economic embargo. Without full legislative access to Cuba, any significant American economic gain would not materialize. However, the swift progress of Cuban-American diplomatic relations suggests an eventual—and perhaps, forthcoming—embargo lift which in turn, would bring considerable success to the travel, agriculture, and financial services sectors.

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