Contents

History [ edit ]

The United Kingdom entered the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. a prerequisite for adopting the euro, in October 1990. The UK spent over £6 billion trying to keep its currency, the pound sterling. within the narrow limits prescribed by ERM, but was forced to exit the programme within two years after the pound sterling came under major pressure from currency speculators. The ensuing crash of 16 September 1992 was subsequently dubbed Black Wednesday . During the negotiations of the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 the UK secured an opt-out from adopting the euro. [ 2 ]

The government of former Prime Minister Tony Blair declared that five economic tests must be passed before the government could recommend the UK joining the euro and promised to hold a referendum on membership if those five economic tests were met. The UK would also have to meet the EU’s economic convergence criteria (Maastricht criteria), before being allowed to adopt the euro. Currently, the UK’s annual government deficit to the GDP is above the defined threshold. The government committed itself to a triple-approval procedure before joining the eurozone. involving approval by the Cabinet. Parliament. and the electorate in a referendum .

Gordon Brown. Blair’s successor, ruled out membership in 2007, saying that the decision not to join had been right for Britain and for Europe. [ 3 ] In December 2008, José Barroso. the President of the European Commission. told French radio that some British politicians were considering the move because of the effects of the global credit crisis. [ 4 ] [ 5 ] The office of the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown. denied that there was any change in official policy. [ 6 ] In February 2009, Monetary Policy Affairs Commissioner Joaquín Almunia said The chance that the British pound sterling will join: high. [ 7 ]

In the UK general election 2010. the Liberal Democrats increased their share of the vote, but lost seats. One of their aims was to see the UK rejoining ERM II and eventually joining the euro, [ 8 ] but when a coalition was formed between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. the Liberal Democrats agreed that the UK would not join the euro during this term of government.

Economics [ edit ]

The UK Treasury first assessed five economic tests in October 1997, when it was decided that the UK economy was neither sufficiently converged with that of the rest of the EU, nor sufficiently flexible, to justify a recommendation of membership at that time.

Another assessment was published on 9 June 2003 by Gordon Brown. when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer. Though maintaining the government’s positive view on the euro, the report opposed membership because four out of the five tests were not passed. However, the 2003 document also noted the considerable progress of the UK towards satisfying the five tests since 1997, and the desirability of making policy decisions to adapt the UK economy to better satisfy the tests in future. It cited considerable long-term benefits to be gained from eventual, prudently conducted EMU membership.

Some believe that removing the United Kingdom’s ability to set its own interest rates would have detrimental effects on its economy. One argument is that currency flexibility is a vital tool and that the sharp devaluation of sterling in 2008 was just what Britain needed to rebalance its economy. [ 9 ] Another objection is that many continental European governments have large unfunded pension liabilities. They fear that if Britain adopts the euro, these liabilities could put a debt burden on the British taxpayer, [ 10 ] though others have dismissed this argument as spurious. [ 11 ]

Some argue that as intra-European exports are 60% of the UK’s total exports, a single currency would enhance the Internal Market by reducing the cost of exchanging currency for businesses and travellers, and reducing currency risk. [ 12 ] An interesting parallel can be seen in the 19th century discussions concerning the possibility of the UK joining the Latin Monetary Union. [ 13 ]

The entry of the UK into the eurozone would likely have a positive effect on trade with the other members of the eurozone. [ 14 ] It could also have a stabilising effect on the stock market prices in the UK. [ 15 ] A simulation of the entry in 1999 found that it would have had an overall positive, though small, effect in the long term on the UK GDP if the entry had been made with the rate of exchange of the pound to the euro at that time. With a lower rate of exchange, the entry would have had more clearly a positive effect on the UK GDP. [ 16 ] A 2009 study about the effect of an entry in the coming years found that the effect would likely be positive, improving the stability for the UK economy. [ 17 ]

One of the underlying issues that stand in the way of monetary union is the structural difference between the UK housing market and those of many continental European countries. [ 18 ] Although home ownership in Britain is near the European average, variable rate mortgages are more common, making the retail price index in Britain more influenced by interest rate changes. [ citation needed ]

The United Kingdom released new coin designs in 2008 following the Royal Mint ‘s biggest redesign of the national currency since decimalisation in 1971. German news magazine Der Spiegel saw this as an indication that the country has no intention of switching to the euro within the foreseeable future. [ 19 ] It is however an unwritten convention that the coin designs should be changed every 40 years to keep the coinage fresh. [ 20 ]

Euro exchange rate [ edit ]

In June 2003, Gordon Brown stated that the best exchange rate for the UK to join the euro would be around 73 pence per euro. [ 21 ] On 26 May 2003 the euro had reached 72.1 pence, a value not exceeded until 21 December 2007. [ 22 ] During the final months of 2008, the pound declined in value dramatically against the euro. The euro rose above 80 pence and peaked at 97.855p on 29 December 2008. [ 23 ] This compares with its value between March and October 2008, when the value of the euro was about 78 pence, and its value of about 70 pence between April 2003 and August 2007. With the impact of the Global financial crisis of 2008 on the British economy, including failing banks and plunging UK property values, [ 24 ] some British analysts stated that adopting the euro was far preferable to any other possible solutions for Britain’s economic problems. [ 25 ] There was some media discussion about the possibility of adopting the euro. On 29 December 2008, the BBC reported that the euro had reached roughly 97.7p, due to poorer economic forecasts. This report stated that many analysts believed that parity with the euro was only a matter of time. [ 26 ]

At that time, some shops in Northern Ireland accepted the euro at parity, causing a large influx of shoppers from across the Irish border. This made some shops the most successful in their company for several weeks. [ 27 ] [ 28 ] Alex Salmond. the then First Minister of Scotland. called for more Scottish businesses to accept the euro to encourage tourism from the eurozone, noting that this is already done by organisations such as Historic Scotland. [ 29 ]

During 2009, the value of the euro against the pound fluctuated between 96.1p on 2 January and 84.255p on 22 June. In 2010 the value of the euro against the pound fluctuated between 91.140p on 10 March and 81.040p on 29 June. On 31 December 2010 the euro closed at 86.075p. [ 30 ] The weakness and the volatility of the pound raised concerns for the costs it entailed for British consumers at home, [ 31 ] [ 32 ] and Britons living [ 33 ] or travelling abroad. [ 34 ] On the other hand, a report in Britain’s Daily Telegraph argued that the high euro had caused problems in the eurozone outside Germany.

Convergence criteria [ edit ]

Aside from approval in a domestic referendum, the UK would be required to meet the euro convergence criteria before being granted approval to adopt the euro. As of the last report by the European Central Bank in May 2012, the UK only met 2 of 5 of the criteria.