JeffryBartash

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Things are really looking up for the U.S. economy in 2014, right?

It certainly seems so. American businesses are hiring more people. Increasingly confident consumers are more willing to spend. Washington has achieved a minor miracle by striking the first budget compromise in years. The world economy is on the mend. And no great crisis appears looming to halt the momentum as in the past few years.

Tampa, Charlotte among gainers.

Yet four and a half years after the recession ended, the path forward is still pockmarked with obstacles. Wages aren’t rising very much. Companies, flush with cash, are still hesitant to invest. And slow growth has left unemployment far too high, at 7%, a deceiving number that excludes millions of people who’ve simply given up looking for work.

So what’s the new year likely to bring? Here’s what economists are saying about 2014 on critical matters such as growth, jobs, the Federal Reserve — and Obamacare.

The economy is about to finish 2013 with a growth rate below 3% for the eighth straight year — the first time that’s happened since the government began publishing gross-domestic-product figures in the early 1930s. Historically, the economy has expanded an average of 3.3% a year.

For now most economists are predicting 2014 growth in the range of 2% to 2.5%, though forecasts have been rising. And a few in the normally buttoned-down profession are starting to stick their necks out.

John Canally at LPL Financial is one of them. He estimates the U.S. will reach the 3% threshold next year, the first time since 2006 that he’s been more optimistic than the Wall Street consensus. Steady improvement in a number of areas of the economy are the main reason, but, like most analysts, he points to the lack of any major headwinds on the horizon.

U.S. and global growth has been stunted in the past several years by a major Japanese earthquake, repeated European financial crises, spikes in gasoline prices, government-spending cuts, tax increases and confidence-killing budget brawls in Washington.

U.S. and global growth has been stunted in the past several years by a major Japanese earthquake, repeated European financial crises, spikes in gasoline prices, government-spending cuts, tax increases and confidence-killing budget brawls in Washington.

“You are just not going to get the same drag on the economy,” he said. Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, agrees. “In many ways the economy is going to be firing on all cylinders for the first time since the recession.”

Not everyone is on board with the sunnier outlook. Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, thinks the U.S. will cling to its recent trend of 2% annual growth. He said there’s no reason to expect a sudden surge in job creation, business investment or wages to fuel faster growth.

Ricchiuto has been one of the most consistently bearish forecasters on Wall Street over the past few years, but he’s also been consistently correct.

Work still to be done

The U.S. is on track to add more than 2.2 million net jobs in 2013 after a similar gain in 2012. Is the stage set for even faster hiring in 2014? Most economists think so.