The Most Promising Shipping StockTrade Is (SBLK NEWL FREE DSX) Small Cap Diligence
Post on: 13 Апрель, 2015 No Comment
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On Friday of last week, yours truly mentioned that shipping names like NewLead Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:NEWL ), FreeSeas Inc. (NASDAQ:FREE ). and Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX ) were budding superstars thanks to the recovering Baltic Dry Index. As it turns out, I probably should have held off a little bit longer. I stumbled across another name I like even better than any of those three. Yes, FreeSeas and Diana Shipping shares have both been lighting it up since then (NewLead Holdings not so much). But, had I kept my powder dry, I might have a little more hypothetical cash to put into — wait for it — Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (NASDAQ:SBLK ) .
Just for the record, this is almost entirely a technically-based trading idea. That’s not because Star Bulk Carriers has pitiful fundamentals; NewLead Holdings Ltd wins the pitiful content hands-down, while SBLK has the occasional bout with profitability. Indeed, if fundamentals were my only concern, Diana Shipping Inc. would get the nod, as the company was profitable despite a tough market until 2013, when the Baltic Dry Index really hit dire straits. No, I just like Star Bulk Carriers as a trading candidate because the shape of the chart is one commonly seen before things take off for a stock.
In simplest terms, SBLK entered a long-term recovery out of a long-term lull in mid-2013. Oh, it’s been up and down since then, but that ebb and flow has been net-bullish. higher highs, and higher lows. If the pattern repeats itself as I think it will, SBLK is gearing up for a another bullish wave, pushing up and off of the 100-day moving average line (gray) to take a shot at the $16.00 area, give or take.
Were the pattern not so smooth or reliable or the volume behind the up thrusts not on such high volume, it may not be worth a swing. Each time the stock starts to rally though, the buyers plow in, providing the very fuel the rally needs to last for a few weeks.
All of that being said, Star Bulk Carriers Corp. does have the performance to back up the rising price. The pros say the maritime shipper is poised to swing from a loss of $0.05 per share in 2012 to a profit of $0.41 for 2013, versus growth to $0.57 per share for 2014. That translates into a palatable forward-looking P/E of 22.6.
Don’t think it’s out of reach either, given how the Baltic Dry Index has continued to behave since my look last Friday. The BDI now stands at 1258, up from 1250 then. More than that, the reversal/rebound effort that started to materialize near the end of January is still going strong, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a revisit to the peaks around (if not above) 2250 that we saw in the latter half of last year. That’s going to give a boost to NewLead Holdings, FreeSeas, and Diana Shipping, but it looks like Star Bulk Carriers is best-positioned to benefit from the rising tide. SBLK tends to move in tandem with the BDI. quite well, in fact.
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Bryan Murphy is a paid contributor of the SmallCap Network. Bryan Murphy’s personal holdings should be disclosed above. You can also view SmallCap Network’s complete disclaimer and disclosure.