Other than using information from a financial annual report (balance sheet income statement) are
Post on: 30 Май, 2015 No Comment
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I'm not a person qualified to give advice in this area. I have no accounting degree or management experience.
But start a search for information.
But one could go around and ask employees what they think of their employer and how things are going. While they will not have the full picture, they may be able to give some idea of how things are. Like we have lots of orders, or things are quiet now. But remember staff may have grudges against management and don't know much.
You could also ask the CFO — they might just tell you — even if it is clocked in positive spin. Turn up to the annual meetings and ask questions. Again you might get corporate spin, but armed with good information you might get extra information on performance. I hear a smart politician will never ask a question without knowing the answer. If you get a different answer this indicates an issue with the company or your source.
Sit outside factories, and see how much is going in and out. Visit their sites. How old is their equipment — will they soon need to spend money to upgrade it? Have a look at their products?
One could also check out legal filings against the company, and I imagine a company would have to make reports about serious safety incidents such as deaths. Additionally check out if the company has made submissions to authorities which can be found out by freedom of information requests.
Do back ground checks on management. What has their historical management style been like? Are there any black marks on their records? Any charges or convictions? Success stories, have they managed in this industry before. A study of somebody's past gives you an idea of how they will perform in future.
Check out supplier and customers. Especially if a supplier depends on their business, or a customer on their product. If they are in trouble then it indicates something could be going on.
Check what management toys they have purchased. If they have a new corporate jet then this can be added to your information. Although some may say that a corporate jet is an indication you need to sell your stock while the going is good. (Of course use all of this at your own risk).
Monitor the whole industry they are in. Are their books similar to other companies in that industry, do they look plausible? Bernie Maddoff created a massive investment ponzy scheme, but one man made good guesses for a while saying that there was no way he could be making the money he was claiming. No One Would Listen
What are publications in the industry saying, about that company and the industry? Talk to competitors as well as tips may be released. Go to an online forum and ask people what they think of a company.
Check out the union. If they have a militant union, it could indicate problems ahead.
It should be noted that you should make sure to obey laws at all times while gathering information. For instance you could go dumpster diving for documents, but this may be illegal in your jurisdiction.
Check out the basics. Are their claims plausible? Do they own what they say the do (check titles)? Are their filings late? Do they have accreditation to do testing?
I read that it is easy for a while to hide things on the books, but companies can not hide cash flow.
Again I note, that I am not an expert in this field — all I have given is some ideas you could look into to find out more, and you should consult an expert who has a better incite incite on how to do this.
All of that said, most experts fail to beat the market in the long term. An index fund could be cheaper and simpler, and cuts the risk of a big bad deal.