Hedge Funds Hunt For Upside Regardless Of The Market_2
Post on: 22 Май, 2015 No Comment
Starboard Value’s recent letter to Marissa and Yahoo ($YHOO) is something like 4,300 words. It’s a long convoluted piece, something Jeff Smith can be good at. In any case, here’s what stood out to us via a chopped & screwed version.
Still tl;dr (still too long; don’t want to read).
The tax-free spin of Alibaba (BABA) is a positive per Starboard
Yahoo still trades at a discount to its SOTP due to a lack of faith in the company’s ability to turnaround its core search and display ad businesses
Starboard values Yahoo post-BABA spin at $22.3bn, 50% premium to current stock price of the stub
Value Yahoo’s core business at 5.5x EBITDA and believes it can get core EBITDA up from $580mm to $1bn with cost cuts — which would get Yahoo back in line with profitability levels from a couple years ago
Even with major ($5bn worth) acquisitions over the last couple years, core revenues and EBITDA is falling
Yahoo! Japan needs to be spun off tax-free like Alibaba and it needs to license its IP portfolio and monetize real estate
Chopped & screwed letter.
Since Yahoo announced its intention to spin-off its stake in Alibaba, there has been substantial discussion and speculation in the investment community as to why Yahoo’s stock continues to trade at such a deep discount to the sum-of-its-parts valuation.
We strongly believe this discount has little to do with the probable success of the Alibaba spin-off and instead is directly related to substantial skepticism about management’s and the Board’s willingness to take aggressive action to improve the Core Search and Display Advertising Business and and unlock value from Yahoo’s remaining non-core assets.
Yahoo’s current share price implies that Yahoo pro forma for the Alibaba stake spin-off is currently valued at approximately $11.2 billion – a discount of 50% to our estimate of fair value.
Over the last two and a half years, since the current management team was hired, Yahoo has spent approximately $4.8 billion in acquisitions and product development costs. But Yahoo’s consolidated revenue and Adjusted EBITDA excluding Yahoo! Japan revenues and other non-cash revenues (EBITDA), declined by 3% and 27% in 2014, respectively.
We believe Yahoo’s Core Business should be highly profitable, but unfortunately it is currently saddled with an enormously bloated cost structure.
We believe that the growth in Yahoo’s social, video and mobile platforms is a product of industry change and not indicative of the company’s turnaround success.
We believe Yahoo can cut $330 and up to $570 million of excess costs per year. This action would merely offset the $490 million increase in operating expense that occurred over the last two years, and bring the Core Business’ profitability back to levels achieved prior to the current management team’s hiring.
Then there’s licensing its IP portfolio and monetizing real estate assets. Worth $1.80 per share in excess capital.
When it comes to Yahoo! Japan, the potential value to be unlocked is $2.6bn or $2.70 a share in value. The best way to do that is a spin-off of the Yahoo! Japan. Something similar to the Alibaba spinoff, with a separately listed entity comprising the Yahoo! Japan stake
It doesn’t need to hold $5bn in cash. But it has a poor track record of acquisitions and cash flow reinvestment. Thus, return $3.5bn to $4.0bn of cash via buybacks.
All in all, we believe that there’s up to $11.1bn or $11.70 a share in value to be unlocked with various financial engineerings. That would increase the value of Yahoo by nearly 30% and increase of the value of Yahoo post Alibaba-spin by 100%.
Commentary on all this to come soon.