Forget European shares are your best bet in 2015

Post on: 16 Март, 2015 No Comment

Forget European shares are your best bet in 2015

SaraSjolin

LONDON (MarketWatch) — With the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average close to record highs, it could be a perfect time to bet big on Europe, HSBC said in a note on Monday.

In the bank’s 2015 outlook on equities, HSBC analysts recommend taking the cash you’ve racked up investing in high-flying U.S. shares and instead take the full plunge into eurozone and emerging-markets equities.

“European equities have underperformed for five years in local currency terms, but we believe 2015 will be the year when this trend finally reverses,” the HSBC equity strategists said in the report.

“The European market looks very good value, trading at a 40% discount to the U.S. on a trend-adjusted [price-earnings] basis, and we believe that outright QE from the ECB in Q1 will provide the necessary catalyst for the region to outperform.”

All major American benchmarks have provided solid returns this year, but for the next 12 months a lot of things — stocks looking expensive, a possible rate hike and a strong dollar — make it hard to argue in favor of going long U.S. shares, according to HSBC, which has an underweight position in the U.S. market.

The view is also echoed by strategists at J.P. Morgan that reiterated their call on Monday that eurozone stocks should outperform the U.S. in the year ahead. Last week, Société Générale further raised the case for buying eurozone assets. mainly due to expectations that the European Central Bank will give the struggling region an enormous financial shot in the arm.

Forget European shares are your best bet in 2015

At HSBC, another major factor in favor of holding eurozone stocks is the monetary policy “tug of war”, where the Fed potentially embarks on a tightening path whereas the ECB sails into unchartered QE waters. In such a scenario, the dollar DXY, +0.19%  would continue to run higher, the euro EURUSD, -0.39% fall even lower and together provide the perfect scenario for European equities, where about 50% of earnings are made overseas.

So how to make the most of this? HSBC tips the European auto sector to benefit from the weaker euro, an effect “our analysts believe that investors are underestimating,” according the year-ahead report. German auto makers in particular are poised for a positive boost, with BMW BMW, -0.57% and Daimler DAI, +0.41%  being high conviction calls.

The strategist also expect the European health-care equipment and luxury-goods sectors to benefit from a weaker euro. Read: Our analysts believe that investors are underestimating

On an index level, HSBC sees the Stoxx Europe 50 SX5P, -0.01%  (the bank doesn’t give a forecast for the Stoxx Europe 600) up 11% by the end of 2015, poised to outpace the S&P’s expected 4% return. For the U.K. the strategists remain underweight. Read: The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 is not set up for a stellar 2015


Categories
Cash  
Tags
Here your chance to leave a comment!