Diversified or Concentrated Portfolio Which Is Better
Post on: 1 Май, 2015 No Comment
Ive generally never held more than 15 stocks in my portfolio at any one time.
I first started investing with $3000 and with each trade costing $12.95, it didnt make much sense to break it up into 10 positions each making up $300. Although my portfolio has increased as I kept adding cash along with the capital appreciation, I have never felt the need to add more stocks or rebalance my positions.
Recently Ive liquidated two of my positions which I will detail when it comes time for a July portfolio update. One reason was that I was finding it hard to fully understand the business. I must admit that I didnt perform as much due diligence on that one and I preferred to sell something I wasnt so sure about.
Which leads to this discussion on concentrating a portfolio or diversifying. I dont over concentrate by investing in only 2-3 stocks where the size of one position may be 50%. I prefer the 10-20 number.
Diversify or Concentrate?
The common adage is not to place all your eggs in one basket because when something goes wrong and you drop it, a majority will break, but then again, a few may not.
But what happens if you place every egg into its own basket? How do you carry 50 baskets? You are just as likely to drop 40 of them.
However, although value investors most often have concentrated portfolios, other types of investors such as pure dividend income investors, safety seekers, mutual fund investors are best to diversify as they generally tend to dislike volatility.
Diversify or concentrate. its a common argument between many people so Ill just end this section with a good reason for diversification.
We want to have enough good ideas at work that if were wrong or unlucky on one or two, we havent lost a significant amount of capital. Its not unusual for us to make a good decision that has a bad outcome this is a probabilistic business. If youre really concentrated and have two bad outcomes out of ten perfectly good decisions, 10% of our portfolio can blow up. Ive heard the argument that if you have your top ten best investments, why would you want to dilute it with your 11th best investment? But if I had to order my top ten ideas by how much I thought theyd go up, I guarantee you that wouldnt end up being the top ten in actual performance. So were just more comfortable being somewhat more diversified. — Zeke Ashton
Constructing a Portfolio
Whenever I find an opportunity I compare it with what I currently hold. This way, I can decide whether I should sell something to make room for the new idea or to keep everything as it is but include the stock idea as a small starting position and gradually build my way up.
This method also helps me to decide how much capital to allocate to the position relative to the overall portfolio. A mistake I made at first was simply buying the same amount in a stock regardless of the potential.
The following is a quote by David Einhorn which is a much better articulated explanation of how I construct my portfolio.
We believe in constructing the portfolio so that we put our biggest amount of money in our highest-conviction idea, and then we view the other ideas relative to that. We find things that we think are exceptional only occasionally. So if we find something that is really set up, where we think its mispriced, where we have a good understanding of why its mispriced, where we think the mispricing is very large and the overall risk is very small, we take an outsized position to make sure we give ourselves the chance to be well compensated for getting it right. — David Einhorn
What To Do?
I hate to leave this post open ended but the truth is that asset allocation and portfolio management is up to the individual and knowing thyself. Some people are perfectly content with holding 3 stocks while another person may need 30 to feel safe.
Just putting something out there for you to consider if you havent done so.