Witan Investment Trust How investors can gain from the fall in the oil price (LON WTAN)
Post on: 4 Апрель, 2015 No Comment
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Andrew Bell, manager of the Witan Investment Trust (LON:WTAN), which has returned 16 per cent over the past year, compared to 9 per cent for the average trust in the AIC Global sector over the past year, believes that the global economy has yet to see the upside from the fall in the oil price, and outlined his view of how to profit from the benefits as they filter through.
He remarked that, The thing with the oil price fall is that it happened so fast that the losers from the price fall become apparent to the world economy very quickly, whilst it takes time for the winners to come through.
The Witan Investment Trust, which has a market capitalization of 1.7 billion, invests through buying other funds. Bell selects the funds and manages the asset allocation.
Bell continued that, the fact is everyone of us pays for oil one way or the other. So a fall in the price of oil is beneficial to almost everyone, I would expect that the benefits could become apparent in the economy by the end of this year, and that retail spending could pick up quite quickly.
He commented that, the key driver within equity markets this year is likely to be the interplay between the rising interest rates in the UK and US, and the benefits from the fall in the oil price. Now rising interest rates is usually viewed as a negative, because it can be a precursor to a slow down in economic growth, but I think that rates rising off the current very low levels wont have that big an impact over the medium term.
The one negative Bell does see in the market centres on valuations, which he believes are quite fully valued.
But he added that, If you look at other parts of the market, such as government bonds, the yields are so low at present that it is hard to see how anyone can make from them.
The largest fund holdings in the Witan Investment Trust include the Veritas Global Growth fund and the Lindsell Train UK Equity fund.
The Witan Investment Trust has increased its dividend for every one of the past 40 years, and it currently offers a yield of 2 per cent.
Bell commented that, While raising the dividend is important, we do run the trust on a total return basis, but the investment trust structure is uniquely placed to allow for regular dividend growth, because in the exceptional years we can hold some of the cash back, and use it to smooth out returns in the more volatile years.
The Witan Investment Trust currently trades at a discount to its net assets of 2.3 per cent.