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Le recensioni clienti più utili su Amazon.com (beta)

47 di 50 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione

Excellent trading foundation! 13 novembre 2005

Di Steven Phillips — Pubblicato su Amazon.com

Formato: Copertina rigida Acquisto verificato

This work provides an excellent, professional grounding for one’s approach to the markets. The theoretical basis for this foundation is ongoing analysis and interpretation of the U. S. treasury yield curve, bond quality spreads, and movements of the federal funds rate. The author’s exposition of the yield curve is the best I’ve seen. She divides her analysis of the yield curve into short-term money market segments, the traditional spread between ten year bonds and three month bills, and longer-term bonds. Each of these segments affords the analyst important information as to the the present and anticipated state of the economy — which determines the earnings expectations that drive markets.

The second section of this book affords a somewhat different take on technical analysis than is usually encountered. The author explains how to use the volatility index (VIX) and the put/call ratio as indications of short-to-intermediate term market turning points. She also indicates how margin debt and short interest levels can be used to reveal long-term market highs and lows.

The third section of the book describes cultural and demographic methods for gauging the market climate. These methods are qualitative only; subject to interpretational error; and questionable in the separation of fact from one’s psychological projection. However, used strictly as adjuncts to yield curve analysis and technical indicator confirmation, they can be quite useful as further confirming tools.

The fourth section describes how to use market timing in a profitable, top-down approach to riding the business cycle through rotation from fixed-income investments into equities, then hard assets, foreign currencies, and back into fixed-income instruments. The author details how intelligent asset rotation leads to more favorable portfolio results than does buy-and-hold over the long run.

The market timing model which the author evolves over the course of the book substantially beats a buy-and-hold portfolio and does so while experiencing less volatility. The timing model’s rationality, operations, and results are clearly explained and documented to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of her approach.

This book is well-written. Its thesis is logical; well-developed; and supported with numerous examples, data, and around sixty pages of appendices. I feel that its methodology will help investors understand and identify forces which move markets as well as avoid those traps of crowd psychology which lead to participation in mass buying at market tops and mass selling at bottoms. This work is an interesting, original contribution to the literature of markets!

44 di 47 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione

An overall disappointing effort 29 dicembre 2006

Di Jonathan N. Evans — Pubblicato su Amazon.com

Formato: Copertina rigida

I approached this book with an inclination to like it. I’m a firm believer in market timing, and I jumped at the chance to learn some new ideas about using the fixed-income markets to time the stock market. I have to say, though, that I came away from Timing the Market frustrated and disappointed. Here’s why.

Throughout the book, there is a chart detailing various buys and sells that one supposedly could have made using the author’s timing system. However, rather than deriving these buy and sell points systematically, the author seems to choose buy and sell points that would have worked best in retrospect without regard for whether or not they fit into a coherent, replicable system.

For example, in chapter 7 the author adds buy points to her chart right after the waterfall declines in October 1987, September 1998 and September 2001. What is the rule that guides these choices? Apparently, it is that the Fed lowered the fed funds rate at least one-half of one percent after a crash of some kind. This rule is apparently a sufficient but not a necessary condition of buying because numerous other buy points on her chart don’t involve this rule at all. So IF you hadn’t already committed funds because of other rules, you MIGHT have been able to buy then.

Later in the book, on the basis of a breadth-based rule about the Dow 30, the author erases the September 2001 buy signal and records a buy signal for her system on July 19, 2002, near the ultimate bottom of the bear market. This is based on the fact that all 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks declined on the same day. I see IN RETROSPECT why she did this, but how would you have known in September 2001 to wait for the later buy signal? The author does not address these kinds of questions at all, as far as I can tell. As I said, frustrating and disappointing.

There may be value in Ms. Weir’s concepts, but she has far to go if her aim is to develop a rigorous market timing system, in my opinion.

17 di 19 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione

One of the Better Market ‘Timing’ Books 14 gennaio 2006

Di Hawkeye Richardson — Pubblicato su Amazon.com