The worst investments of 2014 Eurozone energy firms Pimco and more

Post on: 19 Июль, 2015 No Comment

Canadian stocks had another disappointing year after an autumn pullback turned the S&P/TSX composite index from one of the developed worlds best performers to one of its worst. But Canadian stocks certainly werent the most woeful investment.

Rather than attempting to predict specific events or pick specific stocks that will be winners in 2015, here are five macro themes that you might want to watch carefully.

Here are five of the biggest losers in 2014:

Two years ago, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he would do whatever it took to ensure the eurozone remained intact during the height of the sovereign debt crisis. But all the problems plaguing the 17-nation monetary bloc still remain.

Deflation has reared its ugly head in countries such as Spain and Greece. Data show the eurozone slipped into a dreaded triple-dip recession in the third quarter, with even the mighty German economy faltering. Finally, the political deadlock in Greece has resulted in another round of bond yield spikes for that country.

As a result, three of the world’s four worst-performing stock markets — Austria, Portugal and Greece — are in the eurozone and the STOXX Europe 50 index, a collection of the continent’s largest companies, was more or less flat on the year until a late December surge pushed it into positive territory.

Energy companies

The sudden collapse in crude oil prices still has market watchers arguing about what happened and when prices will recover. What is clear is that energy companies are all scrambling to adjust to a world where oil prices are trading around US$60 a barrel.

Penn West Petroleum Ltd. reacted by slashing its dividend 78%, while companies such as MEG Energy Corp. and Whitecap Resources Inc. trimmed their budgets by hundreds of millions of dollars.

Investors, though, were still quick to exit. The S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index is down more than 7.6% for the year, far worse than the 7.25% return for the broader TSX.

The year started off so promising for the precious metal. Gold prices rose more than 10% in the first few months of 2014 as weak economic data, a currency crisis in emerging markets and Asian demand drove investors to buy bullion.

But halfway through the year, gold prices started tumbling and the metal is struggling to stay above US$1,200 an ounce, well below its peak of US$113.93 reached in 2011.

What is worse for gold investors is that this years price weakness follows the just plain awful performance of last year. Gold prices collapsed by about 28% in 2013, the worst loss in more than three decades.

The surging U.S. dollar, which tends to move inversely to gold, leaves few analysts out there expecting gold prices can move higher next year.

One of the biggest stories of 2014 was the September resignation of Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC co-founder Bill Gross.

His exit from the world’s largest bond fund resulted in a wave of redemptions, with more than US$100 billion being pulled out as of December. A glance at the top 10 funds with the heaviest redemptions so far in 2014 reveals five funds managed by Pimco.

The company still manages a whopping US$1.87 trillion of assets, but analysts say redemptions are likely to continue for a few more months as the company adjusts to life after Mr. Gross.

Russia’s collapse is a multi-asset story. From the country’s currency, to its stock market and bonds, anything with the name Russia attached to it has plunged in value this year.

The MICEX Index, a collection of Russia’s 50 most liquid stocks, now has a smaller market cap than Google Inc. The index, loaded with energy companies, has suffered from a collapse in oil prices and the effects of a U.S. embargo on a number of Russian companies.

The ruble, Russia’s currency, has plunged 39.1% against the U.S. dollar this year and the countrys bonds are among the worlds worst, with yields — which determine the cost of borrowing for the country — on the nine-year bond hitting 7.6% on Dec. 16.

Since the country is becoming increasingly isolated due to its aggressive foreign policy and losing billions in annual oil revenue, analysts see no end to the investor stampede out of Russia.

Illustration by Chloe Cushman, National Post


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