Date of Function: 25-27 March 2010

1 Deemed University, Deonar, Mumbai – 400 088

Call for papers:

National Conference on Demographic Convergence, Demographic Dividend, Population Ageing and Implications for Health and Socio-Economic Transformations: Special focus on South Indian States

Organized by: The International Institute for Population Sciences, Deonar, Mumbai.

Place: Chennai, Tamil Nadu, 25-27 March 2010

The IIPS committee on National Seminar is pleased to invite you to submit original research papers for a three day conference to be held in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, during 25-27 March 2010. The conference aims at drawing attention to evidences, perspectives and policies based on the demographic experience of four south Indian states namely Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu on major themes of demographic convergence, population ageing, and transitions in health and socio-economic conditions in the context of the onset of second demographic transition already well in progress with special reference to the past trends and the unfolding We invite papers that address the following major themes with special reference to the four south

1. Second Demographic Transition, Lowest-low-Fertility, and the Demography of Declining Population.

2. Age-structural Transition and Demographic Dividend: Past and Future Trends and Consequences.

3. Health and Epidemiological Transition and Determinants, Morbidity, Mortality, Longevity and Healthy Ageing.

4. Population Ageing, Health and Wellbeing, and Social and Economic Consequences. 5. Long-term Social and Economic Outcomes and Health and Demographic Inequalities. Several of the states in India, many of them as big as the populous countries in the world, in particular the southern Indian states namely Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, have been experiencing a dramatic and unprecedented fertility decline, reaching below replacement level of total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 in the recent past. It is of critical interest to study whether these states in India will continue to experience the phenomenon of lowest of low fertility in future decades as experienced by most of the developed countries as well as countries in East Asia. Several socio-economic and political factors are responsible for the above phenomenal changes in

2 fertility and mortality and the epidemiological transitions. The current trends are likely to shape the long-term social, economic, health and demographic trends and outcomes. The process of continuing fertility decline during the last two decades in the south Indian states is parallel to the experience witnessed in the countries of Europe and East Asia. Many of the countries in Europe and Asia reached lowest-low-fertility since 1970 but some have also experienced an upturn in fertility in recent times after attaining TFR level of below 1.3. Demographic transition, the process of mortality and fertility decline, is affected by health transition, changing patterns of economy and society, increasing contraceptive use, including relevant policies and programs. In turn, these processes shape development and epidemiological trends. The recent phenomenal decline in TFR reaching lowest-low-fertility levels in urban metropolitan centers such as Chennai and Hyderabad illustrate how the above factors vary in their impact from urban to rural areas. It is therefore of interest to understand what will be the fate of fertility in future in southern states, urban centres, declining populations etc? From the above perspective, the south Indian states are currently passing through the most critical stages of demographic and health transition in terms of fertility and mortality changes, agestructural transition, changing patterns of disease burden, problems of ageing and future social and economic wellbeing of the population. Fertility declines are accounted in major part by postponement in childbearing and limiting the number of high parity births. Lowest-low-fertility brings forth changes in the reproductive values of the younger generations and new social norms. People marry late or may not marry at all, likely to opt for abortions, adaptation etc. Such emerging social norms call for new perspectives of social research and policy response. Early demographic transition and age-structural transitions led to early demographic dividend phase in south Indian states. As a result, there were well recognized concurrent effects of accelerated economic growth and progress in human development in the south Indian states during the last three decades of advancing demographic transition. South Indian states therefore were also major contributors to the national acceleration in economic growth rates. However, in view of continuing fertility decline, the dividend phase will cease sooner than later with the onset of rapid ageing phase in these states. Rapid population ageing is concomitant to the process of demographic transition and age-structural transitions. Experience elsewhere suggest that population ageing phase decelerates economic growth as result of sliding saving and investment rates on account of rising burden on health care, retirement and pension and social security expenditures. Shrinking and ageing labour force may facilitate labour substitution migration and corresponding social and demographic compositional changes. Households and families may have to bear the brunt of caring for the elderly, given the fact that a major share of employment rests in agricultural and informal unorganized sectors where working people are virtually out of pension and social security nets. Rapid ageing leads to a number of

3.health problems purely related to the aged populations such as: disability, insecurity in social and economic wellbeing and an increase in the chronic diseases amongst other problems. Current evidence indicates that in the present century, most of the elderly population can be seen residing in the developing countries as a result of improved medical, health, social and economic conditions. Research is therefore crucial on ageing and health transition and their long-term implications for social and economic development. Researchers need to address widespread problems faced by the elderly in the four south Indian states. New research can lead to emerging policy and programme framework that will help to deal with the similar transitions in the remaining bigger states in India that are at present in the middle stages of demographic and health transition.

The following are the broad themes and sub-themes to provide a basis for researchers to contribute their papers to the conference:

1. Demographic convergence and low fertility-trap

a. Below replacement fertility and lowest low fertility

b. Low fertility in urban, wealthier and educated setting

c. Contemporary childbearing pattern in low fertility context

d. Causes and determinants of low fertility

e. Low fertility, future of marriage and family

f. Policy and programme response to low fertility

2. Second demographic transition

a. Evidences of second demographic transition

b. Socioeconomic variations in demographic transition

c. Changing social composition and demographic deprivation

d. Marriage, late fertility and child development

e. Late marriage, late childbearing and their implications on infertility

f. Policy and programme response

3. Age structure transition, demographic dividend and economic growth

a. Age structural transition and its implications

b. Demographic dividend and demographic nightmares

c. Labour force, savings, investment and economic growth trends

d. Declining labour force and ageing of labour force

e. Declining and ageing labour force and labour migration

f. Employment, retirement and pension

4. Demography of ageing, health and wellbeing

a. Demography of ageing

b. Morbidity, mortality and longevity among the older people

c. Oldest old mortality and increasing life expectancy

d. Chronic disease burden and healthy ageing

e. Family and social network, and wellbeing of older people

f. Gender dimension in health and wellbeing of older people

g. Social security and welfare of older people

4 5. Health and epidemiological transition

a. Epidemiological transition and determinants

b. Health transition and determinants

c. Social determinants and health inequalities

d. Burden of disease and health financing

e. Nutrition, wellbeing and human development

f. Health infrastructure and human resources for health

6. Society, economy, migration and the environment

a. Society and economy in declining populations

b. Migration, consumption and the environment

c. Migration, economy and social welfare

d. Migration, urbanization and social change

e. Demographic growth inequalities and political demography

f. Policy and programme response

Seminar Details

Researchers, academics, and the student community in population, social science and health related fields are invited to contribute research papers. Original contributions may deal with empirical evidence, theoretical perspectives, projected trends, policy and programme framework relevant to the broad research themes stated above. Researchers are encouraged to submit papers that compare the southern experience with that of the developed countries where similar phenomenon is underway.

Persons interested to submit their papers (which must be unpublished or not presented before in any seminar) to the seminar are required to submit both an abstract (150 word) an extended abstract (1000 words). Online submissions are welcome. Please see the Application Form (Word) Application form.

Please send the applictions on the e-mail ids provided below in this brochure.

Important Dates:

Abstract submission. 15 February, 2010

Selection of Abstract. 1 March 2010

Full paper submission. 15 March, 2010

Conference dates. 25-27 March, 2010

Registration Fee. Rs.500/- per participant

Organizing Committee:

Dr. F. Ram, Director and Sr. Professor, IIPS, Mumbai.