Average Stock Market Return Since 19xx

Stock Market Long-Term Average Annual Rate of Return

(e.g. since 1929; past 1, 5, 10, 20. years.)

What is the long-term performance history of the stock market? Throughout stock market history, the average yearly return for periods of 25 years or longer has been around 9-10%. Here we mean total return — i.e. including dividends. Following are the results for some periods of particular interest; results are through year-end 2012.

Average Stock Market Return per year: Last 5, 10, 20. Years

• The long-term, more than 100-year performance: Since 1900 (end-of-year 1899), through 2012, I estimate the average total return/year of the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) was approximately 9.4% — 4.8% in price appreciation, plus approx 4.6% in dividends. (Some numbers may not add up due to rounding.)
• Since 1929 (year-end 1928 — i.e. before the crash), through 2012, the return was 8.8% (4.6%, plus 4.2%) [note: see The 1929 Stock Market Crash ]
• Since end-of-year 1932 (i.e. after the crash): 11.1% (7.0%, plus 4.2%)
• The average annual stock market return for the past twenty-five calendar years (since 1987) was 10.6% (7.9%, plus 2.7%) The market was up over 40% before the October 19, Black Monday, crash. After a significant recovery, the Dow actually closed up 6% for the year.
• Stock market returns for the last 20 years (since 1992): 9.6% (7.1%, plus 2.4%) In the middle of one of the longest bull markets in history. [see below for additional 20-year periods]
• Returns since 1999 (13 years) — the dot-com bubble year-end peak: 3.4% (1.0%, plus 2.4%).
• Returns for the last 10 years (since 2002): 7.2% (4.6%, plus 2.6%) Year-end trough after the dot-com bubble. [see below for additional 10-year periods]
• For the last 5 years (since 2007), 2.6% (-0.2%, plus 2.8%) Year-end peak of housing bubble.
• Since 2008 year-end trough after the housing bubble: 13.4% (10.5%, plus 2.9%)
• For 2012 the stock market (Dow/DJIA) total return was 10.1% (7.3% plus 2.9%)

• 2012 year-end dividend yield was 2.7%

See also March 2013 Stock Market Performance. and 2012 Stock Market Performance: End-of-Year Update .

Note: For graphs of stock market performance over the long-term, see below:

The above results are for specific periods of special interest. Many readers find it helpful to also look at broader collections of data such as:

Long-Term Stock Market Performance, by Year

Stock Market Returns by Year. bar chart of total returns (i.e. incl dividends).

Graphs Showing the Range/Variability of Returns Even Over Long Periods

Best & Worst Returns for 1-100 Year Holding Periods (graph of best & worst past returns for 1,2,3. 100-year periods),

Dow Rolling 10-Year Returns (graph showing all 10-year returns — 1900-1910, 1901-1911. )

Dow Rolling 20-Year Returns (graph showing all 20-year returns — 1900-1920, 1901-1921. )

Insight Into Factors That Impact Returns

Rolling Returns vs P/E Ratio Graph. Rolling returns graph combined with p/e graph to show P/E at beginning of each 10/20-year period.

Starting P/E Ratio vs. 10-Year Returns. Shows the 10-year returns that result from each initial P/E ratio. A classic way of investigating the relationship between P/E ratio and subsequent returns.

Dow P/E Ratio Impact on Future Returns in Dollars. Returns of purchases made when p/e is high compared to returns of low p/e purchases; the difference it makes in 10 years in dollars .

The Extraordinary Impact of P/E Ratio graphic demonstration of the impact of p/e on short-term (1-year) stock market performance.

Key Contributors to Long-Term Stock Market Performance shows dividends and earnings growth are key determinants of long-term stock market performance.

Some Additional 100-Year Posts

100 Years of Inflation History. Overview of the impact of inflation on stocks, bonds, housing.

Projecting Future Stock Market Returns

Notes re Data

In all cases above, the returns are from year-end to year-end. In addition, by stock market I mean the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). The results would typically be slightly higher for the S&P 500. Returns are compounded annually; compounding more frequently would result in slightly higher returns; dividends prior to 1929 have been estimated based upon another stock market index. To calculate the return for periods not listed above, e.g. 1999-2002, see my Dow Compound Growth Rate Calculator/Spreadsheet .

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