Lessons From Buffett s Million Dollar Bet

Post on: 18 Апрель, 2015 No Comment

Lessons From Buffett s Million Dollar Bet

In news that, to most observers, is on a par with the story that ursine mammals have a tendency to do their business in areas of prolific tree growth, yesterday we learned that Warren Buffett has extended his lead in his much-talked about $1 million bet with some some hedge fund guys .

In case you haven’t heard of the wager, in 2008 Buffett issued a challenge to the hedge fund world. He maintained that over the 10 years of the economy’s expected recovery, the market in general would provide a better return than any hedge fund or an average of them. A New York firm, Protégé Partners, accepted the challenge. Both sides invested $320,000 in zero coupon bonds that it was estimated would amount to $1 million after the timeframe of the wager, with the final amount donated to a charity of the winner’s choice.

Protégé set about picking five hedge funds, the average return of which would be used to represent the industry, while Buffett picked the Admiral shares of Vanguard’s 500 index fund. Seven years in, Mr. Buffett’s market index fund is up 63.5%, while the funds show an average return of less than 20%.

I know that on the surface there is an irony here. This column makes suggestions regarding sectors and individual stocks to watch, so it seems strange to highlight a story that many would say argues for passive investing. Before you rush to the comments section to point that out, however, consider one thing. In 2012, as interest rates plummeted, those zeros rocketed in value to where they were very close to the $1 million targeted. Both sides agreed at that point to shift the money to stock in Buffet’s company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B ). That $1 million of BRK-B is now worth $1.68 million. In other words, by careful stock selection and a long term view, BRK-B has performed better than either fund investment.

There are two lessons that investors should take from this. Firstly, the number one enemy of successful investing is not necessarily activity, it is fees. In many cases, picking your own stocks, making your own decisions, and paying trading fees is a lot cheaper than paying a manager to do it for you. When you step back and think, it is fairly obvious that a fund with a 0.05% expense ratio (the Vanguard Index Fund) will outperform one that charges forty times that as a starting point and potentially much more. Hedge fund fees traditionally run at 2% of assets and 20% of performance. That makes delivering alpha almost impossible. Secondly, and probably more importantly, the fact that that is obvious doesn’t invalidate it.

No matter how many times Buffett and other successful investors tell us to take the obvious path, we still engage in a search for the secret sauce that will make us billionaires. The most famous advice that the “Sage of Omaha” has given is to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. essentially to buy low and sell high. Perhaps the best advice we can ever be given, which would help us to understand that, is to “keep it simple, stupid.”

We can stare forever at a chart for Apple (AAPL ) stock, for example, but there are a few obvious things it won’t tell us. Apple is the most successful consumer products company in the history of mankind, consistently maintains ridiculously high growth rates and margins, and is sitting on a pile of cash that could be regarded as obscene by those who dislike money. Obviously, all investors should own some, but many don’t. Similarly, oil is a finite resource for which demand, despite some retraction in the rate of growth, is still growing. It should be obvious that large oil companies with strong balance sheets will recover from the pounding they have recently taken and will probably outperform the market over the next 2 to 10 years as they recover. If we study too closely, though, it is easy to find reasons not to buy Exxon (XOM ) or Chevron (CVX ).

The ability of Warren Buffett to point out the obvious is a rare one, particularly in today’s complex, information-rich world, where over-analysis is common. It is, though, a tactic that can easily be adopted by all investors. Buying low and selling high isn’t a magical thing; it is just about taking a long term view and mostly doing the obvious.


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